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Tom Winmill On Legislation And Speculation Limits Part 2 Wednesday, July 02, 2008 11:13 AM
Sectors: Commodity
But I would say that were the Congress
to ban ownership by pension funds and commodities, Midas Funds would be shorting
those commodities, and we think we’d make a lot of money for our
stockholders.
Norman: Oh, so you go
both ways? You’re not just a long-only approach to commodities; you play both
sides of the market?
Winmill: The nature of commodities
is that it’s very volatile, and investors should limit their own personal
investment to no more than 5 to 10%; that’s what our story is at Midas Funds.
But at the same time, when things get way overdone, we take a view on that - we
look at the fundamental characteristics of that commodity, that resource, and
make a decision in order to optimize returns for Midas Funds’ stockholders.
Norman: Now when you talk about
fundamentals, there are folks out there now who say one of the big fundamentals
is monetary policy, the Federal Reserve, the exchange value of the U.S. dollar.
It seems more like you focus on, “Hey, this particular company, it’s my
operation, what sort of a profit is it going to return?” But what about those
macro factors, those monetary policy factors? Does that come into play in your
decision-making process?
Winmill: It certainly does
come into play, Mike, and partly in the way we allocate the funds. So right now
one of our favorite allocations is the platinum mining companies. Platinum -
currently the worldwide demand is about 7 million ounces - there’s only about
6.5 million ounces produced worldwide; 80% of that comes from South Africa, and
the demand for platinum primarily is in diesel auto catalytic converters. In
other words, every diesel engine that’s put into service - including some
off-road vehicles like bulldozers - start to require more admissions controls,
and that’s where platinum comes into play: more demand on the horizon for
platinum, higher platinum prices, great returns for our platinum mining
companies.
Norman: It factors in with
the whole entire theme of reducing carbon emissions and all that, and
alternative energy … the new technology in cars, as we all know. Overall now,
where are we? This rally has been ongoing now for the past six years. A lot of
investors just seeming to wake up to this … although it’s sort of long. Do you
think it’s near the latter stages or is there a lot more to
go?
Winmill: I think there’s more to go. I’d say we’re
in the fifth or sixth inning of a nine-inning game, mostly because the commodity
cycles are long. It takes now about 10 to 12 years from finding a deposit,
getting through the permitting process, financing and making a stockholder
money.
Norman: All right, so we’re in
the fifth or the sixth inning. You heard it here. Tom, thanks very much for
joining us on the show; I appreciate it. Folks, see you for now. This is Mike
Norman. Stay tuned right here to HardAssetsInvestor.com.
 
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