The Wagner Daily - July 3, 2008
Thursday, July 03, 2008 9:52 AM
Sectors: ETFs , Finance , Forex

On the positive side, the Biotech HOLDR (BBH), which we are now long, continued to show great relative strength by only retracing a small portion of the previous day's gain.

Gold, silver, and crude, along with a few select currencies, seem to be the best alternatives to owning stocks right now. Beyond these areas there is very little setting up on the long side.

Right-click here to download pictures. To help protect your privacy, Outlook prevented automatic download of this picture from the Internet.

Looking at the chart above, notice that the Dollar Index is breaking down from a tight wedging pattern. If the dollar resumes its downtrend in earnest, we could see a strong rally emerge in gold and silver similar to the run up from January to March of this year.

Right-click here to download pictures. To help protect your privacy, Outlook prevented automatic download of this picture from the Internet.

Look for select currencies with strong technical setups to also benefit from a declining U.S. dollar. CurrencyShares Euro (FXE) is worth monitoring for a pullback entry, after reclaiming the 50-day MA and breaking the downtrend line in late June. This is an not an "official" setup, but something to keep an eye on to establish a long entry on a pullback to the uptrend line. CurrencyShares Japanese Yen (FXY) recently broke the downtrend line and is also buyable for a longer term hold on a pullback to 93.25, or on a breakout entry above the recent swing high of 94.78.

With the market at deeply oversold levels the risk/reward ratios do not favor establishing new short positions. That being said, oversold conditions can remain that way for longer than one might expect. Capital preservation is key in this highly volatile environment, so there's absolutely nothing wrong with sitting on the sidelines, preserving cash for the next low-risk opportunity that comes along. As always, remember to trade what you see, not what you think!

NOTE: The stock markets will close early, at 1:00 pm EDT on Thursday, July 3. On Friday, July 4, the markets will be closed the full day. As such, The Wagner Daily will not be published on July 4. Regular publication will resume on Monday, July 7. Enjoy the holiday with your friends and family!

Open ETF positions:

Long - BBH
Short - (none)

NOTE:Regular subscribers to The Wagner Daily receive daily updates on the open positions above, as well as new ETF trade setups, including trigger, stop, and target prices. Intraday Trade Alerts are also sent via e-mail and/or mobile phone text message on as-needed basis.


Deron Wagner is the head trader of Morpheus Capital Hedge Fund and founder of Morpheus Trading Group (morpheustrading.com), which he launched in 2001. Wagner appears on his best-selling video, Sector Trading Strategies (Marketplace Books, June 2002), and is co-author of both The Long-Term Day Trader (Career Press, April 2000) and The After-Hours Trader (McGraw Hill, August 2000). Past television appearances include CNBC, ABC, and Yahoo! FinanceVision. He is also a frequent guest speaker at various trading and financial conferences around the world. Wagner is currently working on this third book, scheduled for publication in early 2008.For a free trial to the full version of The Wagner Daily above, which includes detailed ETF trade setups and daily position updates, or to learn about our other newsletters, visit morpheustrading.com or send an e-mail to deron@morpheustrading.com

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