Analyst Comments: Opnext, Sealed Air, Crown Castle, ASML Holding, Canadian Solar, UDR, NCR Corporation
Thursday, July 17, 2008 6:00 AM
Sectors: Computer and Technology , Finance , Industrial Products
Symbols: ALU, ASML, CCI, CSCO, CSIQ, NCR, OPXT, SEE, UDR

Overall performance of the company will be driven by substantial demand for more tower space to facilitate high-speed data services, in particular 3G wireless and WiMax technologies.  Although a substantial level of debt remains concerning, management has provided a financial outlook that its recurring cash flow per share is likely to increase by 25% during fiscal 2008. Our long-term view regarding the wireless tower industry continues to be positive and we believe the company is well positioned to capitalize on emerging telecom network deployment opportunities.

Since Crown Castle is currently losing money with regard to net income, the stock is difficult to value on the basis of its P/E ratio. With respect to other selected valuation metrics, the stock is trading at a significant discount compared to its peers (consisting of other wireless tower operators). According to our view, the wireless tower industry is likely to witness portentous growth over the next couple of years and, therefore, we believe the current valuation of Crown Castle does not adequately reflect its true valuation potential.

The company is generating strong operational cash flow and its acquisition of Global Signal has started increasing financial performance with consolidation synergies. In considering massive ongoing wireless data deployments, we maintain our six-month target price of $45 which is based on a 2008 estimated EV/EBITDA multiple of 21.76x, still remaining at a discount to the peer group average.

ASML Leads Its Semi Group

ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) is the largest original equipment manufacturer (OEM) of advanced photolithography systems used within the semiconductor manufacturing industry. March quarter revenue and EPS outperformed consensus estimates. The company has the leading position in the next-generation immersion lithography tools, which will lead to long-term growth.

Flash memory makers are ramping chip production in the 50 nanometer (nm) range and most other semiconductor manufacturers are in varying phases of developing immersion production processes and preparing for immersion volume production. We are reiterating our Buy rating on the shares of ASML.

We expect ASML to get into 2008 with a fully utilized, optimum-capacity level. Several industry sources analysis look for a semiconductor unit growth in 2008, which would be higher than the one of 2007. The latest number calls for above 10% unit semiconductor gross and this is the driver of ASML's business. We expect it to be, therefore, a good year for lithography.

ASML shares of are currently trading at a 16.8x multiple of our 2008 EPADR estimate (P/E). The current backlog is heavily weighted towards the leading-edge 300mm and 193nm systems. While these technology orders are important, industry capacity expansion is essential for further top line growth. The next two quarters could be weak but then orders are expected to increase based on ASML building its market share and memory makers switching to immersion. Consequently, we are setting our $35.00 price target, which corresponds to a 21.3x P/E.

Canadian Solar Staying Hot

Canadian Solar Inc.'s (CSIQ) recent bullishness has been boosted due to the improving company fundamentals and a steep rise in the price of oil. Going forward, on the back of solar panel sales growth in various global markets, extension of product lines, material cost savings through the company's more vertically-integrated production structure, higher captive generation of solar cells, long-term supply agreements and a silicon reclamation program should, collectively, generate significant earnings growth.


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