Battlefield Analysis of Portfolio
Wednesday, August 08, 2007 10:44 PM
Sectors: Economics

(You can go to http://www.gpoaccess.gov/indicators/index.html to get a wide array of government-posted indicators, just dont operate heavy machinery after prolonged exposure to data.)

In general, the economys vital signs fall in seven broad categories which show its current health and future trend:
  1. Total Output, Income, and Spending
  2. Employment, Unemployment, and Wages
  3. Production and Business Activity
  4. Prices
  5. Money, Credit, and Security Markets
  6. Federal Finance
  7. International Statistics



Total Output, Income, and Spending are gauges of economic performance and listed are a few:

  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
  • Real GDP
  • Implicit Price Deflator for GDP
  • Business Output
  • National Income
  • Consumption Expenditure
  • Corporate Profits
  • Real Gross Private Domestic Investment

A few examples of indicators which are both procyclical and coincidental in nature are: GDP, Implicit Price Deflator for GDP, and Consumption and consumer spending. GDP measures the vitality of the economy while the Implicit Price Deflator quantifies inflation. Consumption and consumer spending provides vital information on demand trends.


Employment, Unemployment, and Wages provides you with the relative strength of the labor market:

  • Unemployment Rate
  • Level of Civilian Employment
  • Average Weekly Hours, Hourly Earnings, and Weekly Earnings
  • Labor Productivity

The monthly unemployment rate is lagged and countercyclical. The monthly civilian employment rate shows how many people are working and is a procyclic, coincidental indicator.


Production and Business Activity

are monthly indicators measuring the rate that businesses are producing and the level of new construction in the economy:

  • Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
  • New Construction
  • New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates
  • Business Sales and Inventories
  • Manufacturers Shipments, Inventories, and Orders.
Among the most important leading indicators is changes in business inventories for the reflect shifts in consumer demand. New residential construction and housing permit applications are good procyclical leading indicators, which can signal a momentum change in the economic trends.

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