Here are some of the reasons why:
'As the only remaining major independent player in the market for Graphic Processing Units (GPUs) used in PCs, NVIDIA is well-positioned to benefit from increased graphics requirements in Windows Vista, and two new families of GPUs, including Tesla and the G80. The company is also gaining traction in its mobile efforts, and we expect strong growth in fiscal 2009.
'Post-split, shares of NVIDIA are trading at a multiple of 25.8x our fiscal 2008 EPS estimate of $1.27 and 4.5x our fiscal 2008 revenue estimate of $6.67 per share. We believe that several factors will benefit the company in the future, including Windows Vista, two new major product lines, and growth in mobile devices.
'We expect a strong fiscal 2009 for NVIDIA, and as the company is currently in the third quarter of its fiscal 2008, we base our $40.00 target price on a P/E multiple of 30x our 2009 earnings estimate of $1.35. Although above the industry mean, we believe the stock can achieve this due to its industry-leading position.
'Since its struggle with difficult product cycles and lower margins in fiscal 2004 and fiscal 2005, NVIDA has turned the corner, increasing its net profit margin three-fold, and driving its return on equity (RoE) into the 20% range. Although the company has significant stock option exposure, albeit not out of line for a rapidly growing technology company, we expect ROE to reach the low 30% range for the full fiscal year 2008, although we expect this to fall in fiscal 2009 as the company's asset base increases.
'We believe NVIDIA has a strong balance sheet with minimal debt and a falling leverage ratio as shareholders equity increases. We, therefore, maintain our Buy rating on NVIDIA shares and set a target price of $40 to account for the stock split.'
Liberty Property a Sell
An update has come out today on Liberty Property Trust (LRY), in which Zacks real estate analyst Greg Sukenik is restating his Sell rating on the company. We excerpted the following details:
'Third quarter FFO was $0.01 above our estimates, as expenses were slightly lower than expected. LRY recently completed the $900+ million purchase of Republic Property Trust, an office REIT with assets in the D.C. area. Liberty paid a steep price to get into this D.C., which is still one of the best office markets in the country. Although, the acquisition will prove dilutive over the next several quarters.
'We expect rental rates to remain flat through 2008, as the company has assets in office markets that still have high vacancies. The company has a large development pipeline that is only mildly pre-leased, which poses a real risk if the economy softens in 2008.
'At 8.8x our 2007 estimates, Liberty is trading at a discount to pure play office and industrial peers. Office REITs in the Zacks coverage universe are trading at 16.1x 2007 FFO estimates, while industrial-based REITs are trading at 15.2x 2007 estimates.
'Shares have dropped about 35% over the past three months, which we attribute to a general REIT sell-off and worries about US economic growth in 2008. While the current valuation is compelling, Liberty only has marginal growth prospects in 2008. The company is forecasting little-to-no FFO growth in 2008 as rental rates increases will be flat or possibly negative. The company is diluting earnings through a disposition campaign that should upgrade the portfolio in the long run, although this will inhibit near term FFO growth.
'We are also wary of the price paid for RPB and think the company might have overpaid to get into Washington D.C. We are projecting modest 1% FFO per share growth in 2007, and almost none in 2008, well below our estimates for office and industrial peers. We think the sell-off will continue and are setting our price target at $24.00 per share or 7.6x 2007 FFO estimates. We still rate LRY a Sell despite a low comparative valuation and recent price drop.'
Choppy Waters for Navigant
Reiterating his bearish case for Navigant Consulting (NCI), Zacks services industry analyst Sean P. Smith explains why investors should Sell the shares of the consulting services company:
'In light of the tempered expectations going forward, along with the uncertainty related to ongoing restructuring activities, we do not believe that an expanded multiple is justified at this time. While the company's efforts to better structure its operations may result in improved operations in the future, we believe that investors will require tangible evidence that operations are actually improving before bidding the shares higher.
'Until we begin to see the benefits of restructuring activities in the form improved financial results, we would not recommend that investors initiate new positions in the shares of NCI at present levels. In June, management announced the results of the company's modified 'Dutch Auction' tender offer.
'The company accepted for purchase 10,623,624 shares of its common stock for a cost of $217.78 million, or $20.50 per share. The share repurchase was financed with debt. We note that the share price has fallen more than 33% in the four months since the repurchase. We believe this fact, along with the repeatedly lowered guidance and current need for restructuring measures, may have damaged management's credibility with investors, at least in the short-term. We rate the shares of NCI a Sell, with a six-month target price of $12.50, equating to approximately 15x our 2008 earnings estimate.'