But the lack of volume does say quite a lot to us, it says the market is too high here and people want more proof that the economy is bad before they sell, or they want proof that the recession is going to be very mild before they buy. For many months we have been ahead of many analysts in our predictions of the worsening economy. Either they did not want to admit what the facts in front of them were saying, or they just could not see the big picture and have been blinded by the belief that everything will be OK. In other words those economists and analysts were ‘perma bulls’, the term giving to someone who always thinks everything is great in spite of the facts telling them otherwise.

So the only thing we can do at this point is wait, wait for a resolution of the battle between bears and bulls. On a 60 minute chart of the Dow Jones Industrials the battle zone is becoming increasingly narrower. We should know something soon.

(60 Minute Dow Chart)

In technical analysis, an ascending triangle formation will usually resolve to the direction that preceded it. In this case that would be down. Should be an interesting next day or two. This chart will be added to the others (top left side of the web site) that you can click on and see during market hours.

News tonight:

(US) ACCORDING TO A NATIONAL FEDERATION OF INDEPENDENT BUSINESS SURVEY, SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM FELL 3.3 POINTS IN MARCH TO 89.6 (LOWEST READING SINCE 1986) - Wall Street Journal

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(UK) THE IMF TO CUT THE UK’S 2008 GROWTH FORECAST TO 1.6% - TELEGRAPH
- IMF is also expected to predict the weakest two years of growth for the UK since the last recession in the early 1990s.

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WELLS FARGO (WFC): 2008 EPS EST CUT TO $2.35 (-10%) AT CITIGROUP

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US DOLLAR AS WORLD’S RESERVE CURRENCY - UPDATE: THE NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH PROJECTS THAT THE EUR WILL TOP THE USD AS THE WORLD’S RESERVE CURRENCY BY 2015
- Says the EUR is a better competitor than the German Deutsche mark and Japanese yen were in the 1980s.
- “The dollar has not been a good investment over the last 20 years,” said NBER economists. For the USD, “the biggest downside risk is if things just continue the way they’ve been.”

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(US) FIXED INCOME: S&P CUTS 4 US MORTGAGE INSURERS
- MGIC Investment cut to BBB from A-
- Old Republic International cut to A from A+
- Cuts PMI Group to BBB+ from A
- Radian Group cut to BBB from A

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BOEING IS EXPECTED TO ANNOUNCE THAT ITS 787 DREAMLINER HAS BEEN DELAYED BY 18 MONTHS - TIMES
- The Times adds that the setback will cost the company billions of dollars in compensation to airlines.
- According to sources close to Boeing, the company will admit that the aircraft is unlikely to enter service until the end of 2009.
- Boeing is also thought to be ready to postpone or even scrap one of the 3 variants of the aircraft to enable its engineers to focus on solving existing problems.

NOTE: I see layoffs being a real possibility in the future for Boeing

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Aussie consumer confidence drops to a 15yr low: (AU APRIL WESTPAC CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: -1.3% V -9.1% prior) Some analysts expected a dead cat bounce after the index plunged more than -21% in the three months to March, but the April reading was down another 1.3% and the index is now showing its weakest reading since June 1993.