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Energy, the Dollar, Central Europe Farms, and Public Storage Auctions
By: TraderMark   Monday, May 12, 2008 4:08 PM
Symbols: ACAT, COHR, PSA

Medvedev, was riding high on the Russian campaign trail as the hand-picked successor of President Vladimir V. Putin. Although Gazprom forked over a handsome sum to book Ms. Turner and Deep Purple, Mr. Medvedev’s favorite band, the opportunity for the company, the world’s biggest producer of natural gas, to have its own man installed as Russia’s next leader was priceless.
  • .... his ascent confirms that in today’s Russia, the line separating big business and the state is becoming so fine that it’s almost nonexistent.
  • It’s hard to overemphasize Gazprom’s role in the Russian economy. It’s a sprawling company that raked in $91 billion last year; it employs 432,000 people, pays taxes equal to 20 percent of the Russian budget and has subsidiaries in industries as disparate as farming and aviation.
  • If crude oil and natural gas are considered together, Gazprom’s combined daily production of energy is greater than that of Saudi Arabia.
  • Now that Russia is seeking to reclaim the geopolitical clout it had in Soviet days, it is wielding its vast energy resources, rather than missiles, to reassert itself. More often than not, its most potent artillery is Gazprom itself.
  • **************
    Two stories on the dollar....

    NYTimes: The Dollar - Shrinkable but (so far) Unsinkable
    • If the United States were any other country, these would surely be days of panic and austerity in Washington. With debts spiraling higher, a trade deficit exceeding $700 billion a year, and its currency plunging for years, the government would be forced to cut spending and jack up interest rates in a frantic bid to attract investment.
    • For more than half a century, Americans have enjoyed a unique privilege in the global economy: The dollar has been the world’s dominant currency, the money used in most transactions and the repository for the national savings of many countries, including China, Japan and Saudi Arabia.
    • Virtually limitless demand for American government bonds has supported the dollar’s value, and kept domestic interest rates down. Americans have been emboldened to spend in blissful disregard of their debts, secure that foreigners would always supply finance.
    • But what are the chances that a day of reckoning is coming, when the dollar would be so weak that America would have to play by the rules that apply to every other country? Recent signs do suggest some fraying in the American relationship with its many foreign creditors. The balance of trade has gotten so lopsided and the question marks hovering over the American economy so thick that some foreign governments are beginning to hedge their bets on the dollar.
    • For Americans, losing that status could be painful, sending interest rates higher and raising the costs of buying homes and cars. A country that has been operating with essentially unlimited credit might have learn to live within a budget. (the horror)
    My own take, and it's a major outlier view is one day America will default on it's debt. Our debt will rise to the point that (at current pace) it will one day surpass a level we could ever service it - think of a day when the interest ALONE is larger than GDP. Meaning our entire economic output could be spent on interest payments; and that would leave nothing for anything else. So we default - we say, oops - that's never going to happen again, and away we go with a clean state. We look awful in the eyes of the world but really what else is new :) This is the path we are heading in 2-3 decades. Much like a bankrupt company we'd have a new slate and could then begin running up new debt with promises it would never happen again. Plus if you are upset, hey who has the world's strongest military.

    But enough about that - the Wall Street Journal says the "Steady" Dollar Tempers Many of the "Weak" Dollar plays that have been so profitable
    • For years, the dollar has been the sick man of the currency world, particularly when compared with the euro. Now, it looks like the illness isn't terminal, which could affect a variety of investment strategies that have thrived on the dollar's decline.
    • At $1.5483 to the euro, the dollar is up about 3% from its all-time low against the European currency reached in late April. (woo hoo, break out the champagne! 3% off all time low - the strong dollar is BACK)
    • No one expects the dollar to make a dramatic recovery.


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