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Is Berkshire Hathaway Cheap
By: David Enke   Saturday, May 17, 2008 6:58 PM
Symbols: BNI, KFT, KMX, MTB, SNY, UNH, USB, WFC, WLP

This extra boost to the valuation of Berkshire, simply because of his skill and the brand that Buffett has become, if often cited as one of the concerns for the stock as it relates to both the valuation and Buffett's age. In the past the premium has seemed justified based on past performance, and still does, but if Buffett were to step down for any reason, there is an expectation that the premium will be immediately taken out of the stock. Yet, Buffett appears to be in good health and even better spirits, not to mention remaining active in looking for investment opportunities (not withstanding showing up on soap-operas and CNBC at every chance Becky Quick gets).

Still, some investors are waiting on the sidelines for fear that Buffet will be replaced. This seems silly to me since you are missing out on the opportunity of letting one of the greatest investor of all time put your money to work. Furthermore, what happens if Berkshire is then run by someone else, maybe 1, 5, or 10 or more years from now? Will this give you a reason to jump in? Sure, succession will be more clear, but the management of your money will be less so, regardless of Barron's pick (or guess) for a successor - for CEO, not CIO(s). In a sense it comes down to staying out of the stock while you wait for a pullback and possibly new management, compared to staying in the stock and benefiting from Buffett's expertise, even with a lack of succession clarity. I think many current investors will continue to take their chances.

In the end, maybe the biggest hurdle for Buffett may not be his age, or overcoming the "Buffett premium," or worrying about the next catastrophe that will reduce the investment float. What may be more of a challenge is overcoming the law of large numbers. The company's cash for investment is considerable. To make any dent in the stock price of Berkshire, Buffett has to take a considerable position in an outside company in order for it to register enough to potentially affect earnings and move the stock. This takes time, and certainly offers less flexibility to get in and out at an acceptable price. More than likely this is one reason why Berkshire Hathaway has simply made large equity investments and outright purchases of companies in the last few years, although the recent volatility and credit / housing related sell-offs in the stock market have created more of the values that Buffett looks for, and has resulted in more equity positions - recent purchases include Kraft (KFT) , Ingersoll Rand (IR), Burlington Northern Sante Fe (BNI), US Bankcorp (USB), United Health Group (UNH), Wells Fargo (WFC), and Wellpoint (WLP), along with small positions in Carmax (KMX), M&T Bank (MTB), and Sanofi Aventis (SNY) - see previous post for share numbers and dollar values.


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