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Analyst Comments: Ciena Corp., Anadys, Coca-Cola, Jabil Circuit, Vertex Pharma, CRA International, Ferrellgas, Soapstone
By: Zacks Investment Research   Friday, June 06, 2008 4:24 PM
Symbols: ANDS, CCE, CIEN, CRAI, CSCO, FGP, HPQ, JBL, KO, NOK, PHG, SOAP, VRTX

At the current P/E of 14.3, the stock is becoming attractive, but given the near-term weakness in North America, it is prudent to wait until there are signs of stabilization.

Significant upside potential in Coca-Cola Enterprises stock is not expected until CSD volumes or consolidated company volume in North America begins to improve at a mid single-digit growth rate. We keep our Hold recommendation and target price of $20.50, based on a 15 P/E on trailing 12 month earnings.

Jabil Circuit Seeking a Spark

Jabil Circuit (JBL) has been struggling to meet expectations in a slowing macro-economic environment. Despite weaknesses, Jabil's financial metrics are improving as the company wraps up restructuring activities, leading to improved profitability.

However, the near-term risks of slowing end-markets have prompted the company to issue disappointing revenue guidance for 2008 and we don't believe visibility will improve over the near-term. We therefore maintain a Hold rating.

Jabil generates healthy cash flow from operations, reaching nearly $277.0 million in the first half of 2008, and expects to generate in excess of $600 million for the full fiscal 2008. But the company is dependent on a few large customers such as Cisco Systems (CSCO), Philips (PHG), Nokia (NOK), and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), who contribute substantially to its revenue. This concentration leads to earnings and share price volatility. Jabil also has a fairly high level of debt and we believe may have limited financial flexibility going forward.

On a P/E ratio, Jabil Circuit is trading at 15x our 2008 EPS estimate of $0.97, a discount to its industry mean, median, and S&P 500. Given improvements in JBL's operations, we do believe the stock should trade in-line with the industry median and therefore set a price target of $15.00, or roughly 15.7x our 2008 estimated EPS.

Strong Vertex Pharma Pipeline

Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s (VRTX) stock has had a wild ride over the past several months. It was previously down big, as the timeline slippage for the filing of telaprevir, its oral protease inhibitor for the treatment of hepatitis C, and increasing cash burn rates frustrated shareholders. However, the clinical data on telaprevir and other pipeline candidates continues to look very strong. That said, the cash burn rate and high expectations keep us at a Hold rating.

Vertex represents an attractive long-term opportunity based on the potential blockbuster sales of telaprevir. Other pipeline candidates such as VX-702, VX-770, and VX-509 also look very interesting. However, catalysts seem limited until the second half of the year and Vertex is burning cash at a significant rate. The financial situation is solid, but dilution remains a concern. As these issues ebb and flow, we think Vertex's stock can be an effective trading vehicle. We would look to lighten up on the position or take profits after a big run in the name, or when expectations seem unrealistically high.

At less than $25, Vertex becomes a Buy based on the attractiveness of telaprevir, or the notion that Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) may decide to acquire the entire company in order to obtain the U.S. rights to the drug. This is a distinctive possibility in our view, although we believe Vertex management would be hesitant to sell at that depressed of a level.

We are hesitant to recommend the name despite what we see as a significantly under-valued story based on the risk that cash burn rates will remain above $300 million through 2010, that timeline slippage will cause further delays in telaprevir, or that Schering Plough Corp's (SGP) boceprevir looks superior. Our price target is $34 per share.

New Challenges for CRA Int'l

We maintain our Hold rating on shares of CRA International (CRAI) following the release of second-quarter financial results.



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