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Bookkeeping: Weekly Changes to Fund Positions Week 44
By: TraderMark   Sunday, June 08, 2008 9:01 PM
Symbols: ENER, GFA, TSL

Ironically most of my short exposure is actually in stuff that has held up well, because if past patterns repeat the strongest sectors are the last to go... so again I am following the old patterns and we'll see how it works out. I continue to believe if this market were registering any sort of logic to what the plight really is out there in middle America (ex farmers, ex miners, ex oil industry, ex railroad) we'd be materially lower on all indexes. But $1.3 trillion thrown into the market from central banks does have a way of helping the market stay propped up.

Below are the fund changes this week - the specific rationale for each of these major moves is explained in the weekly posts which can be accessed in the left margin of the blog under archives.

Some of the larger changes (chronologically) to the fund below:
  1. Monday, I mentioned the solid quarter from Intrepid Potash (IPI) and the potential upside to full year estimates based on guidance given from the company. Later in the day I began a starter position in the $48s range. I really like the action in the fertilizer group right now - a nice period of consolidation, where the companies faded from the attention of CNBC and most daytraders/momentum traders. If the market were more stable I'd be increasing my exposure materially to this group right at this moment as it has all the markings of a new breakout - but it is simply hard to do that with the headwinds facing the market, and knowing if we do have a sustained move down, these "favored" groups sustain NASTY reversals, quite out of the blue. I continue to use coal and fertilizer (and natural gas) as the "leadership groups" - when they go, we should be in the heart of a nasty time frame for the markets. But so far they have held up. We'll see if they can survive this week.
  2. To that end, on Tuesday I had increased my exposure to all my 3 previously held fertilizer names, as they bounced smartly from last week's "dip". I also increased exposure to Brazilian homebuilder Gafisa (GFA) on it's pullback.
  3. I started to slowly rebuild positions in my mini basket of Indian banks - I had really cut this position back a while back and have been watching the group get pummeled; while the charts are awful the pullbacks have been severe so we will begin buying now and build up these positions on continued pullbacks.
  4. Wednesday, I took profits in Chinese hog producer Zhongpin (HOGS) on a large spike in the shares - this stock acted very well through the end of the week, and I still find the valuation to be very low but this is a thinly traded stock that can move 5-7% in a heartbeat. We'll see how it acts if the market continues to be weak.
  5. I cut back Chinese gaming company Perfect World (PWRD) in the $26.20s as the stock approached multiple resistance levels; saying I'd buy back if it cleared these levels and or pulled back to the lower to mid $20s. I got my wish within 24 hours as PWRD fell to the $23.70s Friday, so I bought back what I sold. While I really like this name for the long run, the next quarter could be dicey as investors fear some fallout from the 3 day shutdown from the period of mourning (earthquake).
  6. Thursday morning I mentioned the week's performance would be tied to Trina Solar (TSL) earnings report Friday; the stock went on to put on a 10% gain Thursday and was all set for rocket take off, if it had just reported a nice solid 10-15 cent beat of analysts 48 cents. Well it beat allright - it beat its shareholders in the gut... the company decided it was time to move to US dollars instead of Chinese Renminbim so a 67 cent quarter was lost, and instead we were handed a 51 cent quarter. And our Energy Conversion Device (ENER) type run was lost in the ether due to management at TSL. Thursday's gain was completely erased and we reverted back to Wednesday's levels. I did buy more in the $45s-$46s BUT when this sector sells off all its participants generally get whacked, so despite a huge chasm in valuation versus peers, if solar goes, so will Trina Solar.
  7. Friday, I began adding to holding positions in the 2 investment banks and 2 housing stocks - these have been battered the past few weeks, and if past patterns hold - just about the time commodity stocks start selling off, hedge funds will pile into these names, driving them up with some huge 1 day spikes. The question is, from that level... I still think they go lower first, so we're taking a very slow as you go approach. If we see more carnage in this group this week, I'll be adding more.
The above do not include the majority of my trades in my Ultrashorts which I am trading quite often as the market ebbs and flows.

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