Chairman Chung Mong-koo
received only a
suspended sentence instead of the expected term of imprisonment on June 5;
the remaining list of chairmen under indictment consists only of former
Samsung Group
Chairman
Lee
Kun-hee.
While there’s now relief in the boardrooms of Seoul, the resolution of this
legal mess will be an enormous liberating force to Korean businesses themselves,
which for the first time in a decade will now be able to focus properly on
international expansion, without top management worrying about a 4 a.m. wakeup
call from the local constabulary.
Real Economic Muscle
Korea’s growth remains strong, with the economy posting a year-over-year gain
of 5.8% in the first quarter. The panel of experts at The
Economist expects economic growth of only 4.5% in 2008 and 4.3% in
2009. But given the vibrancy of Korea’s exports and its 10.0% April increase in
industrial production, those projections are almost certainly much too low
(The Economist experts may not have taken full account
of the effect of better government policies).
Needless to say, when the “experts” appear too bearish on a particular market
or economy, there’s a very good chance that country’s stock market is
undervalued!
Only inflation - at 4.9% in the year to May 2008 - is a worry. But the
combination of the weak won and surging global commodity prices are sufficient
to easily explain this without suggesting that Korea needs radical monetary
tightening.
Three-month interest rates are currently 5.4%, just above the level of
inflation, but 3% above those in the United States, which has a similar
inflation level.
Profit Plays to Make Now
Since the Korean stock market currently trades on only 11 times earnings, it
appears to represent a truly excellent value, given the country’s favorable
growth prospects. Because Korea has few raw materials, it is essentially an
anti-commodities play: Its corporate earnings should mostly benefit if commodity
and energy prices start to decline.
There are five Korean stocks that have American Depository Receipts (ADRs)
fully listed on the New York Stock Exchange and that trade in reasonable
volumes. Some of these are more attractive than others-Kookmin
Bank, Posco and SK Telecom Co. Ltd. seem the best bargains.
Kookmin Bank (ADR: KB): The largest bank in Korea, Kookmin has been hit by
investor disillusionment with the global financial-services sector; indeed, at
one point it was down 50% from its 2007 high. It has rallied from its low and
currently trades at a Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio of only 7.8 times forecast 2008
earnings.