In recent weeks strategists at Lehman Brothers, Citigroup, and Brown Brothers Harriman, among others, have volunteered the B-word and warned of a painful sell-off. The surging price of oil has prompted particular handwringing.

One enlightened observer who's not worried about a commodities collapse is Jim Rogers. The maverick investor, author, and one-time partner of George Soros famously predicted the bull market in hard assets back in the late 1990s and began putting his money in resources when most of us were still enthralled by the dot-coms. According to Rogers, the current highs may represent a market top, but hardly the peak.

"The bull market still has a long way to go," says Rogers. "Is it time for a short-term correction? I have no idea. And even if we are due for a pullback, that's not necessarily true for all commodities. Oil might be ready for a shock, but that doesn't mean that zinc is." (The price of zinc has, in fact, fallen by half over the past year because of a glut. Rogers says he's monitoring industrial metals for the right moment to buy more.)

History is on Rogers's side. As he likes to point out, research shows that over the past 140 years the typical commodities bull market has lasted about 18 years. Rogers calculates that the current boom kicked off in early 1999, which means that if it conforms to precedent, we have almost another decade left.

A second important reason to add commodities to your investment mix - one that's especially relevant to those approaching retirement age - is to offset inflation. Via Don Coxe "If you own agriculture and oil, then you put in a built-in hedge for yourself because you're now somewhat independent of rising food and fuel prices."

If you're looking for a more specific commodities bet with big upside, the best place to invest right now, say many observers, is agriculture. While the prices of corn, rice, and wheat have spiked recently - and food shortages have sparked rioting in Egypt and other countries - they have only just begun to catch up with the rest of the resources world. (Boooyaaaah - ahem)

But grain reserves worldwide are at lows not seen for decades. And new strain is causing increased volatility. Earlier this year the price of wheat shot up 61% before correcting. Again, the main driver is Asia's economic growth. "Billions of people are changing the way they eat, adding protein and calories to their diets," says analyst Sean Brodrick of Weiss Research. (nothing new for blog readers, we've been repeating these theories for a long time)

Thankfully, more and more people are coming around to the theme I've proposed since day 1 in the blog - "this" type of inflation is very different from the 1970s inflation everyone has been trained on. The "World of Shortages" (I really need to patent that) is a whole different ball game. And why, short of global recession it will be hard to see the inflation genie put back into the box for a very long period of time. But in the meantime, the government can continue to hide the truth behind their fiction reports - and I suppose that is the current "solution". Keep sheep ill informed, keep telling sheep what they see in every day life is really not happening, and keep assuring sheep to be happy with their 3% wage increases.

• For those struggling to deal with record gasoline and soaring food prices, there's bad news and more bad news.