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Analyst Comments: Lockheed, National Beverage, STMicroelectronics, Nortel, DeVry, Sepracor, American Electric
By: Zacks Investment Research   Monday, June 16, 2008 7:39 PM
Symbols: AEP, DV, FIZZ, IBM, LMT, NT, SEPR, STM, VZ

In addition, competition is growing from online school programs.

DeVry is currently trading at 34.9 times trailing 12-month EPS, reflecting the company's revenue and potential earnings growth profile since the turnaround. Over the last five years, the stock has traded in a wide P/E range of 13 to 60.

However, excluding the low P/Es from the time of negative enrollment comparisons and excluding the high P/E on depressed earnings when the stock initially rallied on the announcement of the first positive enrollment comparison, the stock has traded in the P/E range of 30 to 52. The target price is $60.50, which is a 36 P/E multiple on 12 month trailing earnings.

Sepracor Looking Past Lunesta

We see little that can be done to reaccelerate sales of Sepracor, Inc.'s (SEPR) sleeping pill Lunesta in the U.S. Thankfully, we are pleased to see management looking to move beyond Lunesta and expanding its respiratory franchise with the recent additions or two new products and several technology licensing deals. Additionally, the mid-stage pipeline is progressing nicely and the stock is very attractively valued.

Business fundamentals have been mixed over the past several quarters. Lunesta growth has been a disappointment and with several new sleep medications coming to the market in the next few years we fail to see whatever drives market share gains above 15 percent. As such, we find it hard to believe Sepracor's stock will outperform while Lunesta treads water.

Management is working to improve the policy regarding asthma drug Xopenex. New draft legislation should help improve trends in the second half of the year. And, the recent patent litigation settlement with Breath Limited was a big positive in our view.

We are excited to see Sepracor starting to put its cash to work. Management still has roughly $900 million in cash on hand to seek more deals in 2008. Beside these small positive steps forward, Sepracor is very attractively valued at only 13.5x our 2008 EPS forecast of $1.49. This should help support the stock at the current level. Our near-term target predicts some recovery back to the $24 level.

Fair Value for American Electric

American Electric Power Company, Inc. (AEP) is one of the largest integrated utilities in the U.S., serving more than five million customers in 11 states. However, the unfavorable order on the construction cost of its West Virginia plant, lower earnings from MEMCO, rising coal costs, and uncertainty surrounding pending regulatory cases collectively continue to weigh on the stock. Thus, we maintain our market-neutral Hold recommendation on the stock.

Consistent performance at the East Regulated segment, new 765-kV transmission lines at PJM, ongoing debt reduction, new power supply contracts in ERCOT (Electric Reliability Council of Texas), and the favorable approval of rate changes from the PUCO (Public Utilities Commission of Ohio) and PUCT (Public Utility Commission of Texas) are expected to drive modest earnings growth at AEP over the near-term.

AEP common stock trades at 13.1x our current-year 2008 operating earnings per share estimate and 12.7x our forward 2009 EPS estimate, or at a moderate discount to the P/E multiple range of comparable diversified energy utilities and the broader electric power utility industry. We set a six-month target price of $44.75, or 13.7x and 13.2x, respectively, our 2008 and 2009 EPS estimates. Price appreciation to our near-term valuation target, coupled with the recently increased $0.41 per share quarterly cash dividend which we deem sustainable and secure represents annualized total return potential of 13.4%.


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