(one can make a lot of money, before having to face the music)

We will have some great shakeouts and many of these no name companies rising 400% I expect to be delisted, acquired for pennies on the dollar in half a decade or just be gone. This will shake out much like the semiconductor industry and in the long run I believe there will be 5-7 major giants who will be quite profitable companies. But where does that leave the other 50-70-90 (and more coming each quarter online?)

Yesterday's announcement by Intel (INTC) highlights these "long term" risks - as did the foray by Applied Materials (AMAT). Solar dreamers will tell you there is room for many many winners because the opportunity is so huge. I do agree the opportunity is huge, but I've never seen any business sector where there are 30 or 40 winners. In the end this will be a high volume, low margin business - almost equivalent to the semiconductor business unless/until a different technology breakthrough comes down the road. Price wars will be rampant. So there will be great shakeouts - and the ultimate winners in a decade could be names we haven't even heard of yet. But as we always say, the "long term" on Wall Street is next month, so we'll just keep our investing dollars focused on the next 6-12 months, while ignoring the blithe frothing at the mouth from people who believe 100+ companies are going to be ultimate winners because solar is just 0.0000001% of today's energy use.

I would say JA Solar (JASO) is a key solar cell supplier so this move by Intel, onto what appears to be their turf could be a danger sign. Now, at this point in the solar cycle - when any 1 company reports something good, they all trade together as if competitors doing well is a great thing. I've been fascinated to watch this, but over the medium term people will begin to realize these are competitors and great news for company A means company B has more stress. But watching this sector for 2 years now, I expect no one over at JA Solar to care about Intel potentially invading their turf - buy buy buy.