The capital structure for the combined entity is no longer
viable
and would render it insolvent, the company
said."
That's a potential panic trigger too. Anyone remember 1989?
Have a look at the regional banks. NCC, BKUNA, WM, FED, DSL,
WB, RF, etc. Pick one. How many of those stock charts look like an imminent
FDIC takeover? Can the market be wrong? Sure. It is all the time.
Is it wrong about all of them at once? I can't tell
you which one(s), if any, are safe and which are not. Why? Because I can't
dig through their balance sheets sufficiently well with the information we're
given as "peons" to know what sort of tomfoolery has been engaged in!
I started writing about this more than a year ago with WaMu, when they
reported more "capitalized interest" than actual cash earnings - and in
fact their cash earnings were insufficient to support their dividend.
What's "capitalized interest"? Its the negative-amortization from "Option
ARM" mortgages, basically. Banks get to report that money as earnings
even though they didn't actually receive any cash. This is all fine and well so
long as you will eventually collect that money. But what happens
when the value of the house drops below the outstanding mortgage balance? Is
that "capitalized interest" still "money good"?
Now try to figure out which of the banks has a problem with this. Good
luck. The market has decided that the answer is "all of them"
because they can't separate out the good from the bad. Have a gander at the
volume of PUTs - bets on decreasing stock prices (perhaps to zero!) that are
being bought the last few days - those purchases have been ramping at an
alarming rate. Not good.
Next up are the bond insurers:
"June 18 (Bloomberg) -- Bill Ackman was right: the world's largest bond
insurers aren't worthy of a AAA credit rating and may be headed for the bottom
of the scale.
Ackman, the 42-year-old hedge fund manager who says he stands to make
hundreds of millions of dollars betting against MBIA Inc. and Ambac Financial
Group Inc. if they go bankrupt, will tell investors at a conference in New York
today that losses posted by bond insurers may threaten to breach the capital
limits allowed by regulators, making them insolvent."
Sometimes the shorts are right, eh?
Shall we hop across the pond?
"``The Monetary Policy Committee is prepared to take whatever action is
needed to return inflation to the 2 percent target and to keep expectations of
inflation in the medium term anchored to the target,'' King said in London.