The company is looking for a product that will fit well within its existing product portfolio. We expect an announcement in this regard in 2008. Also, we expect an update on the monetization of the Ramoplanin asset shortly, which will be a major positive for the company.
Thanks to the company's focused promotional efforts, Antara is one of the fastest growing products in the cholesterol market. Although first-quarter sales were disappointing, we expect trends to improve going forward once inventories go back to normal levels. Antara should continue in its role of primary growth driver and we expect its revenues to touch $80 million in 2008.
The shares are currently trading at $1.71. We believe that the stock is undervalued and the current share price represents an attractive entry point. We recommend purchase up to the $4 level. Our $4 price target is based on net cash position plus product/pipeline value.
Margins Contracting at Robert Half
We maintain our Hold rating on the shares of Robert Half International (RHI). Although the company benefited from double-digit revenue growth in 2007, concerns remain about an economic slowdown negatively impacting staffing companies like Robert Half. The operating margin is contracting, primarily due to weak international operations at Protiviti, which embarked on an aggressive global office expansion program at the same time revenues came under pressure from reduced client demand for compliance-related employees.
Focus on better corporate governance and internal controls in financial reporting created new accounting and finance jobs, which in turn benefited Robert Half. The company is expected to continue benefiting from favorable demand for financial services professionals. Management believes that the company should benefit from a shift to the higher margin Permanent Placement business from the Temporary Placement division.
Robert Half is currently trading at 13.1 times trailing 12 month earnings. The company is quite cyclical with EPS dropping down to $0.01 in 2002, resulting in a 1,800 P/E ratio when the stock was most attractive. Therefore, the stock should be valued on a price-to-sales (net service revenues) basis. Robert Half currently trades at 0.80 times trailing 12 month net service revenues (sales). The target of $27.00 is based on a 0.90 P/S ratio on 12 month trailing net service revenues.
Downgrading Penske to a Hold
Penske Automotive Group, Inc. (PAG) has a unique business model, a strong luxury automotive market, and a high growth rate. However, rising interest rates, challenging industry conditions and a leveraged balance sheet dampen our outlook on the stock. Thus, we lower our rating to a Hold.
The used-vehicle market in the U.S. is challenging owing to the relative affordability of new vehicles, spurred by attractive pricing and cash-back offers. The company's gross margins are below average due to a lower finance and insurance contribution. Since Penske Automotive's customers tend to belong to a higher income group, they rely less on car financing.
The company also has a huge amount of debt on the balance sheet and most of it is variable-rate based, whose cost increases with higher interest rates. Further, higher interest rates will make the financing of acquisitions more expensive.
Currently, shares of Penske Automotive Group are trading at 10.0x our 2008 EPS estimate of $1.66. We set a six-month target price of $18.50, which is 11.1x our 2008 EPS estimate.