Plus, without the claim on the label many cardiologists will not use the product.
Two late-stage pipeline candidates will deliver the next wave of growth for the company. We are optimistic on both Cleviprex and anticoagulant Cangrelor, but more data is necessary before either candidate can be proclaimed a winner. Europe, Middle East and Africa gave the thumbs-up in January and U.S. approval would be a big positive.
The $22 target price is derived by applying an industry average 21x multiple (peer-group average) to our 2011 EPS forecast of $1.97, and then discounting back to present day at 20 percent.
Modest & Steady for U.S. Cellular
United States Cellular Corp. (USM) is the sixth largest wireless telecom operator in the U.S. and the largest subsidiary of Telephone and Data Systems Inc. (TDS). Although competition has intensified following recent consolidation in the wireless industry, U.S. Cellular's high service standards have helped maintain steady growth of subscribers and low churn (customer switching) rates (less than 2% for over ten years).
The company continues to improve customer retention while increasing operating return per subscriber. The management also issued a positive outlook for 2008 and continues its focus on improving profitability through network technology upgrades and strengthening its brand image. We maintain our Hold rating while providing a premium to its current valuation as we assess subscriber retention trends and the sustainability of average revenue per unit (ARPU) levels moving forward.
U.S. Cellular trades at 16.9x our 2008 EPS estimate, which represents a discount to the forward P/E ratio for the industry group. On the basis of Enterprise Value (EV) to EBITDA (a common valuation metric for wireless carriers), the stock is trading at 5.2x estimated 2008 EBITDA which is at a discount to the industry average. We have set a six-month price target of $61.50 based on EV/EBITDA multiples of 5.5x, closing in on peer group levels.
Comstock Estimates Raised
We are reiterating our Buy rating on Comstock Resources, Inc. (CRK) shares ahead of the company's second quarter results. With first-quarter volumes up 25% year over year, we expect full-year growth to be approximately 20%. Additionally, the Bois d'Arc sale to Stone Energy is expected to streamline Comstock's operations and position it to function as a pure play onshore natural gas producer.
The Haynesville Shale play offers significant long-term reserve-add potential going forward. Comstock's drilling success in the Cotton Valley formation is another catalyst for future production growth. We are increasing our 2008 ($4.25 vs. $3.40) and 2009 ($3.95 vs. $3.52) EPS estimates.
As of year-end 2007, Comstock had 1,048.7 billion cubic feet equivalent (Bcfe) in proved reserves, of which approximately 80% was natural gas and 68% was developed. Comstock will spend $322 million this year on exploration and development activities, drilling approximately 117 onshore wells.
Our new $95 target price reflects an updated net asset value estimate, using a higher commodity-price deck and adjustments to its year-end 2007 proved reserves tally for the Bois d Arc transaction and other purchases/dispositions. Comstock shares currently trade at roughly 81% of our net asset value estimate, highlighting the stock's attractive value proposition.
Costs Balance Agnico-Eagle Mines
Agnico-Eagle Mines Limited (AEM) reported first quarter EPS of $0.20, below our estimate of $0.22 and down 13.0% y-o-y, primarily due to higher production and general and administrative costs.
However, gold prices remain high and higher byproduct prices are lowering total cash costs, i.e., production costs net of by-product credits. In addition, the company also has a healthy pipeline of long-term projects to boost gold production. Nonetheless, AEM is incurring heavy exploration costs due to these gold development projects, which will negatively impact the cash position this year. We reiterate our Hold rating on shares of AEM.
For 2008, total cash costs per ounce are expected to be approximately $50 only, with the y-o-y difference in part attributable to higher production costs associated with gold sourced from new mines at the Goldex mine project and the Kittila mine project, which do not contain any by-product metals.
Long-term project funding comes from a healthy cash flow generation. Moreover, the company's balance sheet remains strong. With four gold projects under construction, AEM remains well-positioned to achieve its goal of a 55% y-o-y increase in gold production to 358,000 ounces in 2008.
We have valued Agnico-Eagle using the P/E valuation metrics.