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A Beer War is Brewing
By: Zacks Investment Research   Wednesday, July 30, 2008 11:40 PM
Symbols: AVP, BUD, DV, SNA, STRA, TAP

On the recent price weakness in July, we upgraded the stock to a Buy.

Snap-on, DeVry, and Strayer Education are three companies that have exhibited strong earnings growth despite a weakening economy, and the recent market pull-back has provided attractive entry points in their stocks. Snap-on is a global provider of professional tools and equipment. Having reported upside earnings surprises for ten consecutive quarters, once again earnings momentum investors are expected to return and buy the stock. Management has successfully delivered more predictable and consistent financial performance through the implementation of the Driven to Deliver and Rapid Continuous Improvement programs.

DeVry and Strayer are providers of post-secondary education, primarily targeting working adults. Both managements continue to execute well with both companies reporting positive enrollment trends. Annual tuition increases augment top line and bottom line growth. In addition, Strayer Education and DeVry have reported earnings results above expectations in the past three quarters.

Any Sells, and/or general issues to be wary of?

Over the last two years, I have been a table-pounding buyer of Anheuser-Busch (BUD) under $50. With the final friendly offer of $70 per share from InBev on July 14th, I finally downgraded the rating to a Sell.

However, more is brewing in the beer industry: a structural change is about to occur. With the merger, excess costs will be wrung out of Anheuser-Busch by InBev. In addition, a joint venture between Molson Coors (TAP) and SABMiller should produce a more competitive brewer with greater scale, resources, and distribution synergies from the optimization of production and distribution networks.

Therefore, the cost rationalization at Anheuser-Busch (instigated by the merger with InBev) and the joint venture between Molson Coors and SABMiller are expected to spark more intense competition, resulting in the loss of the positive pricing trends enjoyed by the industry for the last two years, in other words, a beer war. Most likely, both companies will pursue higher levels of promotional initiatives and marketing spending. As a result, overall profitability for the industry is expected to suffer. Molson Coors is also rated a Sell.

Steven Ralston, CFA is a Zacks analyst covering a variety of companies in various industries of the Consumer Staples sector.

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