It's possible that the AKP could be banned, but Erdogan still permitted to hold public office. This wouldn't be too bad, as the members of the ruling party could simply regroup under a different banner.
The case is being heard by Turkey's Constitutional Court. You have done a scenario analysis , and come up with the following:
1)
AKP and Erdogan survive. In this case, you'd expect USD/TRY to fall 2% on the day and 7% within a month. Call the
agent immobilier and tell him you'll be on the Netjet to pick up the keys to your new chalet in a month's time.
2)
AKP is banned, but Erdogan survives. In this case, you'd expect choppy price action on the day, with an unchanged USD/TRY by year end. You'll make a few bucks, but you'll be renting when you ski next February.
3)
AKP and Erdogan are banned. This means that the Turkish government is, in effect, declared illegal, leaving a political vacuum that could potentially be filled by the military. You believe that at best you lose 4% if you get out immediately; if you hold the position until year end, you'll lose 10% on it- even including the carry. In this case, you'll be using the student travel agency to book your ski trip.......in Scotland.
THE PHONE CALL
Around lunchtime yesterday , rumours start to swirl that the Constitutional Court has invited milling journalists inside the building. The implication, of course, is that an announcement is imminent. While trying not to talk your own book, this seems bullish to you, as an announcement was not really expected until Friday. Given that an AKP ban would then require individual assessment on the future of all 71 AKP parliamentarians, an early announcement would appear to imply an acquittal. You sell more USD/TRY.
However, the afternoon drags on with no news but plenty of rumour. Finally, at 4.10, your phone rings. You glance at the Turkish newswire that you've been reading all afternoon, but nothing's come up...not even in Turkish.
