Who is Killing the Electric Car?

By: The Panelist Monday, August 04, 2008 2:21 PM

Symbols: ALTI, F, GM, TM, VLNC

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So far, GM is right on schedule for the Volt's release.

Meanwhile, the pure electric vehicles are also making a comeback, with privately-owned Tesla Motors, Fisker Automotive, and Phoenix Motorcars among the most prominent domestic names. Tesla has garnered the largest share of the headlines and is boldly planning an IPO by the end of the year.

As sexy as it may be to become the first publicly traded EV pureplay in the world, I can't help but predict near-term disaster for Tesla. Internal strife between founder Elon Musk and former CEO Martin Eberhard has produced unwanted delays in production, and the estimated cost of producing each vehicle keeps going up due to unforeseen challenges. This is beside the fact that it has yet to be proven that cars can be commercially produced and driven with lithium-ion batteries as its sole power source.

Thermal runaway, a longtime challenge of lithium-ion technology that is still being addressed, has occurred in cell phones and laptops that are powered by a single battery cell. Now imagine the potential heat that can be produced in a machine you are driving that is powered by over 6,800 of those same battery cells.

Without a combustion engine as a safety net, I predict these electric vehicle manufacturers will endure a slew of growing pains before they are commercially accepted. Indeed, while creating a zero-emission vehicle is laudable, I think these pure EV manufacturers are trying to skip an important step and may, in turn, temporarily steer the public away from the pure EV concept.

At the same time, I am excited about the prospects of the PHEV segment, the same step that the pure EV manufacturers are trying to skip. For the record, GM and A123 Systems have partnered up to produce the nanophosphate-based lithium-ion battery cells for this car. GM will produce 10,000 Chevy Volts in 2010, ramping up to 60,000 in the second year of production. Toyota, Ford (F), Volkswagen (VOW.DE), and a whole slew of start-ups have also announced their intentions of entering the PHEV market.

Let the games begin.


8/4/2008 3:23:07 PM GM never wanted the EV1, now or in future either by Doug Korthof There's no "race" for plug-in cars, and there's no "agreement" that Lithium works better than NiMH. In fact, ALL the Lithium batteries have problems; that GM is pursuing Lithium research indicates that it doesn't really want to make a plug-in car. If GM were serious, it could simply resume production of the 160-mile-range EV1, or use the Panasonic EV-95 batteries that Toyota used on the RAV4-EV; add a small range-extender, and you have an EREV with 100 miles of all-electric range, and the genset powers it for longer trips. Reply Rating: (0) (0)
8/4/2008 9:44:39 PM Sort of by Jason I agree the oil companies control the car companies, but the EV1 was a battery holder. The volt is supposed to be a real mass market car. Better batteries are near. I don't know if GM could build a car people are used to that gets 100 Mile, let alone 40 mile range also with a range extender. Do we need to jump to 40 mile electric range and 600 mile per tank range? How bout 20 mile all electric and 300 mile overall range, at least to start, every one built would be sold, at a premium, you'd lose less money per unit, and you'd give batteries more time to evolve. While your at it, make it slow as shit, you'll still sell every last one that is built Reply Rating: (0) (0)
8/5/2008 1:22:05 AM How would we charge them all? by John The United States is home to the largest passenger vehicle market of any country. Overall, there were an estimated 250,851,833 registered passenger vehicles in the United States according to a 2006 DOT study. Do you know how much electricity it would take to charge all of these cars if they were electric? How many more coal plants would it take to generate the extra load? Electric capacity is shrinking every year, and our electric grid is very old and outdated. Some power companies are sending out letters asking consumers to cut back on consumption or face future price increases/ blackouts. Sure, paying 4 dollars/gallon sucks, but do you really want to pay triple on your electric bill too?....One more thing... An old man that does not drive, can avoid paying the high gas price. BUT...That same old man will have to pay triple the price to run his heat because you want to plug in your car for 8 hours every night. Reply Rating: (0) (0)
8/6/2008 1:22:53 PM The Electric Car is not dead by Alternative Energy In fact it has never been more alive. Your misgivings notwithstanding, i think that there is a lot of potential in the market for pure EVs even right now and i don't think that manufacturers have missed an important step in between. Technology for EVs in improving all the time and there every reason to believe that mass production is not a figment of the imagination. Reply Rating: (0) (0)
8/4/2008 3:23:07 PM GM never wanted the EV1, now or in future either by Doug Korthof There's no "race" for plug-in cars, and there's no "agreement" that Lithium works better than NiMH. In fact, ALL the Lithium batteries have problems; that GM is pursuing Lithium research indicates that it doesn't really want to make a plug-in car. If GM were serious, it could simply resume production of the 160-mile-range EV1, or use the Panasonic EV-95 batteries that Toyota used on the RAV4-EV; add a small range-extender, and you have an EREV with 100 miles of all-electric range, and the genset powers it for longer trips. Reply Rating: (0) (0)
8/4/2008 9:44:39 PM Sort of by Jason I agree the oil companies control the car companies, but the EV1 was a battery holder. The volt is supposed to be a real mass market car. Better batteries are near. I don't know if GM could build a car people are used to that gets 100 Mile, let alone 40 mile range also with a range extender. Do we need to jump to 40 mile electric range and 600 mile per tank range? How bout 20 mile all electric and 300 mile overall range, at least to start, every one built would be sold, at a premium, you'd lose less money per unit, and you'd give batteries more time to evolve. While your at it, make it slow as shit, you'll still sell every last one that is built Reply Rating: (0) (0)
8/5/2008 1:22:05 AM How would we charge them all? by John The United States is home to the largest passenger vehicle market of any country. Overall, there were an estimated 250,851,833 registered passenger vehicles in the United States according to a 2006 DOT study. Do you know how much electricity it would take to charge all of these cars if they were electric? How many more coal plants would it take to generate the extra load? Electric capacity is shrinking every year, and our electric grid is very old and outdated. Some power companies are sending out letters asking consumers to cut back on consumption or face future price increases/ blackouts. Sure, paying 4 dollars/gallon sucks, but do you really want to pay triple on your electric bill too?....One more thing... An old man that does not drive, can avoid paying the high gas price. BUT...That same old man will have to pay triple the price to run his heat because you want to plug in your car for 8 hours every night. Reply Rating: (0) (0)
8/6/2008 1:22:53 PM The Electric Car is not dead by Alternative Energy In fact it has never been more alive. Your misgivings notwithstanding, i think that there is a lot of potential in the market for pure EVs even right now and i don't think that manufacturers have missed an important step in between. Technology for EVs in improving all the time and there every reason to believe that mass production is not a figment of the imagination. Reply Rating: (0) (0)

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