However, the company has also indicated that it may not act in anticipation of further development associated with CLF shareholder opposition to the ANR-CLF transaction.

Assuming ArcelorMittal is serious about creating a bidding war here, it very likely will need to make its offer sooner, rather than later, as this publication foresees very little chance of Harbinger Capital's opposition convincing CLF to withdraw from this transaction.

On the other hand, the entrance of ArcelorMittal with the cash offer would very likely dissuade CLF from entering a protracted bidding war under the current circumstances (i.e. Harbinger's stance). Thus, hesitation by ArcelorMittal in this scenario will very likely result in the current transaction proceeding to a successful completion under the current terms.

Electronic Data Systems (EDS) - Hewlett-Packard (HPQ)

July 31, 2008 (8:55a) - South Africa Competition Commission / Israeli Status

The South Africa Competition Commission has recommended unconditional approval of this transaction to the Competition Tribunal of South Africa. However, the Tribunal has not yet scheduled a date for considering this case and issuing the final decision. According to an SACC official, this will probably occur today or tomorrow, but other matters could easily delay the approval decision into early next week.

It would not be surprising given the approval recommendation if the companies were to waive this condition to closing if the formal approval is not granted within the next day or two.

The precise status of the Israeli conditions remain unknown as the companies and regulators have refused to offer even general information related to this transaction. Until any information on this regulatory matter can be obtained, it will be assumed that the companies have not yet obtained the necessary consents from Israel and therefore will delay the close beyond today's EDS shareholder meeting into early August. As with the SACC situation, it will not be surprising is the Israeli conditions are waived in order for the companies to complete the transaction within the next several days.

Rohm Haas Co. (ROH) - Dow Chemical Co. (DOW)

July 29, 2008 (2:35p) - Additional Analysis

Follow-up research tends to confirm the initial assessment that regulatory delays may become a significant factor in this deal. They key product overlap area remains perceived as the acrylic polymers niche, where both companies compete directly for a wide-range of end-use applications. Further, DOW appears to be not only a manufacturer/supplier of basic acrylic polymers, it is also a major supplier of the basic chemicals used to make acrylic polymers/acids. This type of verticality, while not a generally a concern for the current DOJ/FTC, is precisely the type of competitive situation that could draw heightened scrutiny under a new administration in the U.S and/or with the European Commission.

Additionally, end users of the companies' acrylic products have already expressed concerns with this combination, as seen in the following statement:

“We are really concerned about the potential for reduced competition,” Cytec Industries CEO David Lilley said, adding that Cytec intended to follow the regulatory approval process “very, very closely, such that a dominant position could not be built up, so that there could be over-aggressive pricing in that (acrylic acid) marketplace.”

Clearly, the acrylic issues, both horizontal and vertical, will play a major role in timing to close, as the possibility for divestitures is extremely high in this case -- as it is with many major chemical mergers.