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Quick Look Around the Middle Class Retail Space
By: TraderMark   Friday, August 08, 2008 10:27 AM
Symbols: ANF, BIG, CROX, KSS, MA, RES, SBUX, SMF, WFMI, WMT, WY

But now their parents are increasingly unable to pay for such "luxuries" (note - I've owned this position long many times over the years since frankly it's been a heck of a stock) But until I see "strength" in these type of names I'm not buying any "recovery" thesis that Kool Aid drinkers propose.

As I always say with same store sales
  1. This is sales, not profit - if you are HIGHLY promotional (i.e. big discounts) your sales can go up, but that does not mean your profit will
  2. Don't forget inflation. If you believe inflation is 3% than same store sales should go up 3% just for unit sales to be flat. If you believe it's 5%, than of course sales should be 5%. If you believer higher... then you get the picture. So any company showing less than 5% same store sales, in my book, is showing a contraction - due to inflation factors
  3. July was the top of the bell curve for rebate checks - so imagine these numbers WITHOUT rebate checks and that will be the future. Until the next "stimulus plan"
Let's see how these 3 did:

Target Same Store Sales Down, Sees August Decline

  • Discount retailer Target Corp (TGT) said on Thursday sales at stores open at least a year fell a more-than-expected 1.2 percent in July and it forecast another decline for August.
  • Target said that in the month, sales were strong in electronics like video games and TVs, health-care items and food. (staycations and consumer NON discretionary)
Kohl's July Sales Down 10.4 Percent
  • Kohl's Corp (KSS) said on Thursday that July sales at stores open at least a year fell a worse-than-expected 10.4 percent, hurt by lower inventories, and the mid-priced department store chain's shares fell 2.5 percent in premarket trade.
  • Analysts on average were expecting Kohl's sales to fall 7 percent for the month, according to Thomson Reuters Estimates. (missed it by THAT much)
Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) July Same Store Sales Down 7% Percent
  • Teen apparel retailer Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF) said Thursday same-store sales dropped 7 percent in July and missed Wall Street expectations.
  • Analysts polled by Thomson Financial, on average, expected same-store sales to decline 1.4 percent. (missed it by THAT much)
I picked these 3 - there are a handful of others you could pick and the results would be just about the same. Again, the spin on financial media will be "yes but that is backwards looking when gas was $4! Just wait now that gas is headed to $3!; that's going to help the consumer so much!" As if $1 of gas (or about $15-20 per fill up) is going to make up for job losses, housing values tanking, lack of confidence, and inflation of 12-15%+ (my figure not the governments) in most other areas. Oh yes, they will also leave out the fact that these numbers are inflated by the stimulus check - thats BACKWARDs looking as well.

So again folks, don't buy the company line.


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