Rather than just playing footsie, Xstrata has been successfully courting institutional holders, grabbing 2.1% of Lonmin in a
single trade with BlackRock's World Mining Fund on August 8, bringing Xstrata's stake in Lonmin up to a respectable 10.68%.
Just looking at this from a chartist perspective, this deal makes sense - Lonmin has been penalized for platinum's fall, yet effectively missed out on the rally. But Xstrata claims that Lonmin has been floundering during what should have been a huge windfall period because of bad management, loss of talent and bad operations planning. The two companies' South African operations are located within miles of each other, and on the surface, this could be a classic case of one big, efficient company buying a floundering target, with the credible prospect of engendering a turnaround and unlocking value. Of course, Lonmin management doesn't like being called names, so they're playing defense, and certainly won't be supporting the bid anytime soon.
It seems less full of turmoil and doubt than the endless takeover battle between mining dance-partners BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto, a topic on which we report regularly.
This is just another case of the consolidation wave I expect to be hitting commodities companies as long as things stay volatile. As we saw with Barrick's move into oil last week, the Xstrata move is capitalism at its most aggressive (and effective) - those companies that use capital well go into the market and find ways to use even more of it when the shine comes off their industry.
Those that don't play defense.