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Playing a Potential Oil Rally, Shorting Transports
By: Scott Johnson   Monday, August 25, 2008 2:23 AM
Symbols: AFAM, AMR, ARD, BSC, CAL, CAMD, CPL, CRN, CSE, DAL, FCN, FNM, KNSY, LEH, RMBS, TBSI, UAUA, WOLF

CAL, DAL, and AMR are also worth a look.



In my sector overview for the coming week, I am seeing commodities rally and weakness in non-commodity sectors. I will not be surprised if it goes in a different direction though, so I am in wait-and-see mode and lightly invested entering the week.



- XLF: I've mentioned several times the potential for short squeezes. On Friday someone made a nice little profit going long financials, then starting a bogus rumor about Koreans and LEH. The shorts scrambled to cover.



When we get these squeezes, it is worthwhile to consider some recent history. On Thursday, LEH closed at 12.54. It opened on Friday at 15.80 on the rumor, before closing at 14.41. Going back a little over a month, people were also buying (or getting squeezed) after news of the FRE/FNM bailout. FNM's July high was 18.36. Friday it closed at 5.00. A buyout/government intervention did not help out BSC shareholders either. For me, the best action is in shorting these types of rallies.

- WB: Despite a broader financial rally, WB reversed lower in the afternoon to close down 2%. WB remains my favorite short in this sector.



Some other charts of interest:

- CPL: Brazilian energy company saw accumulation after earnings this month. If energy and commodities rally, it will be good for the Brazilian market, and for CPL.



- TBSI: Shipper looks good as a short below Friday's low.



- WOLF: I started a long position in the last hour Friday.


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