(remember, that is backwards looking - the pundits are screaming to us as gasoline drops 40 cents that consumers will now "be back" - so I'm shocked, just shocked, the stocks are not shrugging off this news as its not forward looking - remember we hit nirvana in 6 months)

"Casual dining and food service customers have been affected by a significant decline in restaurant traffic due to weak economic conditions and higher fuel prices," Chief Executive Joe Sanderson said in a statement. (that's in direct conflict to what pundits tell me - so do I listen to someone in the industry or a bunch of traders screaming to buy consumer discretionary because in 6 months everything will be fine? Usually I try to ignore people who live, breathe, and work in an industry because really what do they know compared to traders at a hedge fund desk or "strategists" on financial TV? Remember the game - every trader is trying to jump in front of the next trader trying to guess when the recovery happens so they constantly drive up bad stocks counting on a "recovery" that they have no clue is going to happen, but if enough people do this at once, the flood of dollars can make the stocks ramp - and thats yet again what we saw in July and August - it happens like clockwork every 3 months the past year. Meanwhile companies executing are tossed to the curb - who needs 'em!)

We continue to live in a hear no evil, see no evil environment - people of "high above the median" wealth trade off what they see/feel/live in their lives, and this disconnect between their lifestyles and what is really going on in the "real world" for typical people of modest means - leads to some strange trading decisions and movements. In my opinion this led to the "denial" stage all of summer 2007 and fall 2007 when all these people of means were saying "what slowdown?", "what inflation?" "my personal assistant says prices are not going up that much so why all the whining?". Much like our politicians with their 2-4-6-8 homes, gold plated healthcare and benefits package - the "elite" in the country simply are out of touch for the struggles of the many. I think this wealth chasm only grows wider over the coming years as huge swaths of people who were relying on credit get by the past decade turn increasingly bitter, angry... and desperate. Just my take - and I hope to be wrong. Meanwhile, every time gas drops 40 cents it's time to build a new thesis about how these people who are facing a multitude of challenges, and a lack of credit to finance their old lifestyles will "be back".
No position