One day, when investing horizons last more than 72 hours this stock will rise from the ashes.

Sam Zell is looking to invest even more in countries that are about to evolve into anarchy (as the US concurrently enters a period of bliss)

• Billionaire real estate mogul Sam Zell, who built a fortune investing in distressed property, sees opportunity in the beaten-down shares of Brazilian home builders and plans further investments in Brazil.
• Zell's international private equity arm, Equity International, is betting that a consolidation of Brazil's overcrowded publicly traded real estate sector will unfold by mid-2009 or early 2010.
• Realty was a major focus of Brazil's recent boom in public stock offerings, but too many companies entered the sector, Gary Garrabrant, Equity International's chief executive and co-founder, said in an interview. Many have since seen their shares plunge and investors are demanding better performance.
• Equity International, through its stake in Brazilian home-builder Gafisa (GFA, hopes to pick up land when the shake-out squeezes management that cannot deliver.
• "We're watching three or four of those through Gafisa. Because we believe over the next, call it 12 to 18 months, there will be a consolidation phase that begins," said Garrabrant, who also is chairman of the board at Gafisa.
• "We've actually received calls, it's fascinating, from two or three founder CEOs, who are -- I don't want to say waving the white flag -- but are pulling the white flag out of their pocket," he said. "I don't know how long it will take for them; I don't know how big the flag is." Many of the founders behind the new public realty companies, while highly entrepreneurial, were ill-prepared to deal with the level of disclosure investors demand, he said.
• Zell, known as the grave dancer because of an article he wrote 30 years ago about picking through the bones of distressed properties, is big on Brazil, so much so, Garrabrant said, that both had broken pledges to not promote the country.
• Brazil is a beacon for realty investors because of pent-up demand among a population of 185 million and a housing shortage of 7 million to 8 million.

And lo and behold within weeks... Bloomberg: Gafisa Buys a Competitor

• Gafisa SA, Brazil's second-largest real estate developer, agreed to buy a controlling stake in rival Construtora Tenda SA, aiming to boost its presence in the low- income housing market. The companies' shares surged. As part of the transaction, Gafisa will have a 60 percent stake in Tenda, while Fit Residencial Empreendimentos Imobiliarios Ltda., the Gafisa subsidiary focused on low-income housing, will be part of Tenda
• ``This transaction can be good for both companies,'' said Leonardo Cavarge, analyst with Link Corretora. ``Tenda has always been dedicated to low income so it will have synergies with Fit. There will be an exchange in knowledge that will be positive for the companies.''

So once again, HAL9000 the quant hedge fund computer says "buy the country's housing stocks who have 11 months worth of inventories and foreclosures in waves, on the promise that things will be better in 6-9 months" instead of "buy the country's housing stocks where there is a shortage of 7-8 million units - because as commodities go, so will go Brazil". That is as simple as the algorithm is. When oil is down, Brazil must be sold - every stock in the country.

Sam Zell thankfully is not a computer. For those among us whose timeline is longer than 1 quarter and do not have to "perform" to continue acquiring assets or keep those under their roof there are great opportunities for those with patience. For the rest of us catering to a flighty investor base who performance chases, well we need to make numbers every quarter I guess... and leave the big wins for Zell ;)