The Iranian option gives Iran the energy security it needs and the economic clout it seeks in Central Asia, while giving the Turks and the Europeans an alternative energy route.

However, there is the small matter of Iran being … well, Iran. For Turkey to sign such a deal with the Iranians, and for such a project to get the Western investment it needs to take off, the Iranians would first have to come to some sort of rapprochement with the Americans to lighten the political atmosphere. That would involve major breakthroughs in the ongoing U.S.-Iranian negotiations over Iraq and the Iranian nuclear program.

These negotiations are still in progress and are fraught with complications, but the Turks are signaling that the Iranian option might not be an impossible goal. After all, the Turks have sought a larger role as mediator between Washington and Tehran in their negotiations to go along with Turkey’s ongoing mediation efforts between Israel and Syria. According to the Iranian oil minister, Turkey is planning to send its energy and foreign ministers to Tehran in the near future to discuss energy plans with the ayatollahs — a meeting that will need to be watched closely for any signs that Ankara is at least ready to set the groundwork in pursuing the Iranian option.

In pursuing Central Asian energy, however, the Turks will still face an uphill challenge in convincing either Turkmenistan or Kazakhstan to turn Westward. Russia has been slowly and steadily tightening its grip over these Central Asian states, and will do whatever it takes to keep Ashgabat and Astana in line with Russian interests. Post-Georgia, Kazakhstan — which is arguably the former Soviet republic most exposed to Russian threats — has already strongly hinted that it might give up on the BTC line altogether and reorient itself almost completely to the Kremlin (while keeping open its options with China). Though Turkey may be flirting with the Kazakhs, Astana simply does not have much room to maneuver in straying from Moscow’s wishes.

Geographically speaking, Turkmenistan is a more viable option for the Turks to pursue. But even Turkmenistan will be extremely wary of upsetting the Kremlin at this juncture, and has recently been in talks with Alexei Miller, president of Russian firm Gazprom, to finalize a price for a 25-year agreement for Gazprom to buy up all of Turkmenistan’s natural gas, save for the small amount currently destined for the Turkmenistan-Iran pipeline. Between China hungrily pursuing Turkmen energy and the Russians fighting to maintain their monopoly over Ashgabat’s energy sector, Turkmenistan is unlikely to have much to offer to Turkey and the West, at least in the short term.

Turkey’s new interest in Central Asia is the next logical step in the cascade of reactions to Russia’s military action in Georgia. What Turkey will soon find, however, is that there really are no good options when it comes to expanding energy access to this part of the world — especially under the Kremlin’s watch.