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Technical Analysis: Charts With Solid Risk/Reward
By: Market Folly   Thursday, September 11, 2008 2:13 AM
Symbols: BJRI, FCX, GS, SBS

Here's the original chart I meant to post up showing the clear support for GS at around $155 and then the resistance at around $200 (you could also make a point for resistance around $190).
(click to enlarge)

Now, take a look at GS currently.
(click to enlarge)


As expected, it bounced right off $155 and traded higher up to $170. The simple play here has been buy GS around $155 and stop out around $145 or so (depending on how tight you want your stop). Then, you turn around and sell GS as it rallies higher into various levels of resistance around $170, $190 or wherever you want to lock in some profits. As you can see, this name has been trading sideways for a while. So, while there might not be a big play here right this moment, keep your eye on it. Eventually, some very favorable risk/reward setups will take place just as they have in the past in this name.

Next, I want to turn to a little series that I like to call: There's no such thing as a triple bottom. First up, we have Companhia de Saneamento (SBS). Now, I actually like this name as a longer term play on Brazil. But, for the time being, you absolutely have to respect the technicals, which point to lower prices. Obviously this presents us with a risk/reward setup. You can either try to catch a falling knife (which I don't really recommend). Or, you can wait until it slices through that past support line and short it down along with the rest of the momentum players. It's up to you. The point is that around $37 or so has served as past support for SBS as it double bottomed back in April of 07 and February of this year. You could get a reflex bounce off that support level. But, since we all know there is no such thing as a triple bottom, it looks like it's heading lower.
(click to enlarge)

The second chart in the "no such thing as a triple bottom" series is Freeport McMoran (FCX). Again, this company is actually a great name to own for the longer term, as valuations have just gotten ridiculously cheap. But, in the mean time, you've got to respect the technicals. Some hedge funds have been forced to sell their shares, while others are merely front-running each other. It's a mess out there and it doesn't look like it will end anytime soon. On the chart, you see that FCX double-bottomed in September of last year and February of this year. Yet again, we're down along those levels of $65. Triple bottoms don't exist so I expect this name to trade even lower to the secondary support level I've drawn in around $60. This is simply another risk/reward setup for you to keep your eye on. These charts are painting an ominous picture right now.
(click to enlarge)

So, what does everyone think about these setups? Are there some you like, some you don't? Would love to see what other people think about these setups. Because, after all, technical analysis is in the eye of the beholder. And, what I see could be completely different than what you see.

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