Canon slightly raised its 2008 revenue in light of new product launches scheduled for second half of 2008. However, strong Yen appreciation has hurt first half results. We believe there is meaningful risk that the company will not achieve its targets. We therefore maintain a Hold rating on CAJ shares and lower our price target to $42.50.
Shares are currently trading at 10.9x estimated 2008 EPADR, a discount to the industry mean and median. Although we believe that some premium is warranted given its strong position in the digital camera business, we don't see room for meaningful appreciation from current levels.
Quicksilver Target Adjusted
We are maintaining our Buy recommendation on Quicksilver Resources, Inc. (KWK) but decreasing our target price to $40 from $42 per share. The company's growth story remains strong and with the recent accretive Alliance acquisition, the company looks to further increase its growth prospects in the prolific Barnett Shale.
The Texas Barnett Shale play now represents over 5.5 Tcfe of low risk reserve potential for KWK. The near 45% pullback since mid-July in the company's stock price is near historically low levels from a valuation stand point, further solidifies our recommendation.
Lastly, the company should have no problem paying back the $1 billion of debt it took on for the Alliance acquisition as it has a sufficient amount of excess liquidity from its credit facility as well as more than $600 MM of non-producing assets.
On September 2, the board of directors of Quicksilver Resources approved a $270 MM increase in the company's 2008 capital budget. The budget increase is tied to the Barnett Shale acquisition in Tarrant and Denton counties. Approximately 20 of the 35 additional wells will be drilled in relation to the Alliance acquisition.
Quicksilver typically trades at a premium to its peers due to its large near-term growth potential and low risk, low cost operating strategy. When valuing Quicksilver we look at forward price to earnings (P/E) and enterprise (EV/EBITDA) multiples. Quicksilver s forward looking P/E multiple has historically averaged around 20x earnings and its EV/EBITDA multiple has traded between 8x-10x.
With our 2009 net earnings and EBITDA estimates of $2.01 per share and $975 MM, a price object of $40 yields a forward P/E and an enterprise multiple of 20x and 8.7x. These multiples are both within historical and appropriate ranges.
BJ Services Feels Price Weakness
BJ Services Co.'s (BJS) fiscal third-quarter 2008 earnings, though below the year-ago level, managed to beat estimates on the back of revenue improvement in all the segments.
Importantly, the company appeared to have achieved price and margin stabilization in its core U.S. pressure pumping operations. However, it remains to be seen whether the trend can be sustained given the ongoing weakness in natural gas prices and the supply-demand imbalance in the pressure pumping market. Being a relatively commodity-type supplier, BJS remains particularly exposed to these headwinds.
Oilfield activity levels are particularly strong in North America, as evident from the increasing rig count level. The current U.S. rig count (the week of September 5, 2008) is up approximately 10% from the year-earlier level.
The overall average U.S. rig count last year was up 10% from the previous year s level. While some moderation activity levels is likely in the coming months in response to the current weak outlook for domestic natural gas prices, the overall rig count is expected to still compare favorably with historical levels.
BJ Services also remains well positioned internationally, with strong prospects for revenue growth and margin gains. Prospects are particularly favorable in the Middle-East and Latin America, where year-over-year revenue growth rates were 21% and 30%, respectively, in the recently completed fiscal third quarter of 2008.
Castle Brands Under Siege
Castle Brands, Inc. (ROX) is a small capitalization company in the premium spirits industry. The company has an established distribution network in the United States. Despite rapid sales growth garnered through strategic relationships, joint ventures and acquisitions, the company has consistently operated at a loss.
In light of the company's poor earnings record and the management's plan to aggressively spend on advertising and promotional activities, the company is not expected to deliver positive earnings results in the near future. However, improved case sales should drive revenue growth and this small capitalization company is building a franchise. In June, the company engaged Miller Buckfire to evaluate prospective financial transactions, including the sale of assets or the raising of capital. We rate the stock a Hold.
Since the company has consistently operated at a loss and with negative operating cash flow, the stock is best valued on a price-to-sales basis. Since going public in April 2006, the stock has traded between 0.04 and 3.03 times sales. The stock is currently selling at a P/S multiple of 0.12. The target price is $0.50 per share based on a price-to-sales ratio of 0.25.