I put these people 3rd on the list
because they will be punished properly, while the other two will
not.
Does the Solution Prevent a Redux?
I agree that the government had to step in. Allowing a potential depression
when there are the means to prevent it is not acceptible. But does the solution
of public bailouts and buying bad assets prevent this from happening again?
A somewhat similar solution, the Resolution Trust Corp., was used in the
early 1990's to clean up the bad assets of the Savings and Loan companies that
failed in the 80's. The new plan appears to be a little different. The
government will buy bad assets on the cheap from banks that want to get them off
of it's books. This provides liquidity that is needed to function. The bailout
for AIG is really just an expensive loan that allows the company to liquidate in
an orderly fashion. The solutions themselves are not terrible ideas. The
companies at fault are being punished, the government is just preventing a
frenzied free-for-all asset auction while they are largely dismantled.
To consider the case closed, there will have to be stricter regulations on
these "creative" loans and securities. Finance has to be a conservative
undertaking.
What Does All This Mean for Magic Formula
Investors?
This is a site about finding the best Magic Formula stocks, and while I've
gone off on a tangent here, there is a coorelation. First of all, we are lucky -
the Magic Formula by definition avoids traditional and investment banks as well
as insurance companies. That's a huge break. Just being a MFI investor in the
first place has kept you out of Bear Stearns, Freddie and Fannie, AIG, and
Lehman Brothers (not to mention all other financial institutions which have been
roundly pummeled). Regardless of strategy doctrine, there are
plenty of reasons that banks are difficult investments and should be
avoided.
MagicDiligence picks are
always financially healthy and sport great management teams. This helps to avoid
investing into the greed of managements who are in it for themselves. Do you
think the CEOs of Fannie and Freddie care much about the shareholders that
collectively lost billions? With strong financial health, the Top Buys can easily survive
economic downturns, and come out stronger on the other side. Finally, with
durable competitive advantages, they can maintain sales and profits better
through a downturn than MFI stocks that rely on sales that can disappear
overnight.
Most importantly for investors, DON'T PANIC! Those that sold en masse early
in the week missed the big gains towards the end. If you are holding good
stocks, continue to hold them. If you have the cash, now is a good time to go
shopping. This has always been the successful investor's way, and it will
continue to be going forward.