Du Pont describes itself as a global science company employing more than 60,000 people worldwide with a diverse array of product offerings.
On September 23, 2008, Du Pont Titanium Technologies announced price increase for all Du Pont Ti-Pure titanium dioxide grades sold in Latin America. Effective October 1, Latin American prices for all Du Pont titanium dioxide grades will increase by $150 per metric ton. The company attributes the price hikes to rising demand for TiO2 and rising raw material prices.
On September 18, 2008, Du Pont declared a force majeure for its facility in Orange, Texas, after assessing the plant's damage from Hurricane Ike. This facility handles its ethylene copolymers business. It is unclear when operations here will be resumed.
Du Pont is currently valued at 12.2x our 2008 estimate of $3.59. We rate the stock a Hold with a target of $41.50. This is 11.6x our 2008 estimate.
Advanced Auto a Hold for Now
Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (AAP) is a specialty retailer of automotive parts, accessories, and maintenance items. The company caters to the do-it-yourself (DIY) and do-it-for-me (DIFM) customers. Though it is generating top-line growth by opening new stores, the company currently faces a challenging industry environment.
To combat the difficult industry metrics, the company has reviewed its business strategies to drive sales, lower costs and increase return on invested capital (ROIC). AAP expects increased investments and fuel costs to constrain profit growth in 2008.
Thus, we are maintaining a Hold recommendation until costs are contained and same store sales improve. We set a six-month target price of $42.00.
Wyeth Working Thru Setbacks
Wyeth (WYE) is one of the world's largest research-driven pharmaceutical and healthcare products companies. The Madison, New Jersey-based company's recent performance has been stunted due to the entry of generic Protonix in late 2007. EPS growth through 2009 will benefit from recently implemented productivity initiatives and share repurchases.
The company has a number of intriguing strategic alliances and potential billion dollar drugs in the late-stage pipeline. Recent pipeline setbacks will cause a drag on financial performance. Upside could have come from a favorable ruling on the Protonix patent but that has now been pushed back to the fourth quarter of 2009. Alzheimer's candidate bapineuzumab is a potential mega-blockbuster but we question its approvability.
We believe the current valuation is fair given the trade-off between the significant number of pipeline disappointments versus the potential for bapineuzumab to become a mega-blockbuster. We expect 2008 revenue to be up about 5% compared to 2007 but most of that growth will be due to favorable currency effects.
We look for EPS of $3.50 in 2008, flat from 2007 due to expectations of a higher tax rate and an unfavorable interest rate environment relative to 2007. We maintain our Hold rating with a $42 price target, representing 12.0x our 2008 EPS estimate of $3.50.