arguably lost its way
by having citizens believe that everyone has the right to own a home and that
it’s okay to spend beyond your means - the latter of which can send them
spinning into serious financial jeopardy.
Meanwhile, greedy creative financiers, who provided the products and services
that gave the public what they wanted only fanned the fires that were already
brewing.
And since 1988, the policies of George Bush I, Bill Clinton, and George Bush
II have only exacerbated the situation and created the now infamous sub-prime
mortgage problems that have led to the downfall of many financial
institutions.
I’ll give you a personal example of how the financial market has become
clogged…
The Runaway Hedge Fund Industry… From Growth Explosion To Market
Meltdown
When I was active in the hedge fund industry in the early and mid 1990’s,
there were fewer than a couple of hundred funds.
Since then, however, the industry has swelled enormously - and now contains
more than 10,000 funds.
And such huge growth in numbers has resulted in equally massive growth in
assets, mushrooming from $500 billion to $2 trillion.
Even when I was in the market, it was extremely difficult finding the
portfolio managers, analysts, traders, and others, who could manage and run a
successful hedge fund that investors were willing to pay a premium for superior
performance.
So it stands to reason that with all the newcomers in the market, there are
even more who are unable to achieve this and are wilting under the pressure of a
severe market downturn.
Don’t get me wrong… most hedge fund managers are very
bright. But they simply lack the experience of seasoned veterans. And we can
attribute much of the stock market’s recent weakness to the enforced selloff of
stocks from fund partners and the lack of buyers in the market. It then becomes
a vicious, self-perpetuating cycle, born from fear and a crisis of confidence
(as Richard Fuld, CEO of the now-bankrupt Lehman Brothers firm testified before
Congress yesterday).
How the heck do you invest in an environment like this?
The Analytical “Double Play” That You Should Be Using For Your
Investing
Simply put, fundamental analysis should be at the root of any investment
decision. Combined with technical analysis and the current price of an asset,
investors should then be able to make informed, intelligent decisions.
However, during severe market corrections, rational thinking gives way to
psychology and perception. Or put another way… fear and greed.
Consequently, since this isn’t accurately quantifiable, making predictions
becomes much tougher. Nevertheless, that’s our business! So while I confess that
I don’t yet see a real bottom in the near-term, the market is deeply oversold,
which suggests that we could get a significant rally at any time.