Third, there is the issue of pre-existing national debts. This one is pretty straightforward. If a country has a history of running fast and loose with its budget, it will have accrued a hefty national debt. This both increases the costs of future financing and acts as a drag on existing expenditures because the government has to factor interest payments into its budget, reducing the amount of resources available for anything else — such as dealing with a credit crunch.

The map indicates which states have the capacity to deal with a broad credit crunch based on the three criteria above.

(click image to enlarge)

Of course, the ability of a state to fight off a credit crunch is only half of the equation. The remainder involves the severity with which the state is affected. Just as not all countries are created equal, not all countries will be affected by financial crises in the same way. For example, the United States can count on many investors piling into U.S. government debt even on the worst of days. So financial crises may feel painful, but in reality they require few large-scale adjustments (bear in mind that in the impossible scenario that every cent of the $700 billion bailout is somehow lost, that “only” amounts to 5 percent of the gross domestic product).

But for states dependent upon foreign investment that also lack the ability to define global economic trends — Greece comes to mind — the next few months look very bleak indeed. In contrast, some states that are rich in capital and not particularly dependent upon foreign capital — nearly all of the Arab oil exporters make this list — will not suffer from a crisis because they are net exporters of capital already, and in fact will see phenomenal opportunities unveiled as other states struggle.