We expect results to continue to reflect global markets' turmoil and also the recent $1.75 billion acquisition of Lehman Brothers North American investment banking and capital markets operations, funded with ?701 million of new equity capital.
Currently, Barclays is trading at 7.7X the consensus earnings estimate for 2008 and 7.4X the 2009 consensus estimate. This is below the industry median P/E ratios of 8.8X for 2008, but on par with the 7.4X for 2009, also based upon consensus estimates.
Barclays estimated future growth matches the industry median, and its attractive 10.3% dividend yield should provide support for the stock price. Our price target of $24 represents approximately a 5X P/E multiple of 2009 estimated earnings of $4.20 per ADS, providing a PEG ratio of 0.6X, roughly in line with the industry.
COSI Has Expansion Obstacles
Cosi, Inc. (COSI) owns, operates and franchises a chain of 145 fast casual restaurants operating in 18 states, the District of Columbia, and the United Arab Emirates. Cosi restaurants prominently feature an open flame stone hearth in which it bakes its signature flatbread throughout the day. Cosi restaurants are located in the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic and Midwest regions of the U.S, and management plans to expand in the West.
After uncontrolled growth leading to two years of sub-par profitability, Cosi is making significant strides in its plan to return to profitability. The company has shed unprofitable locations, scaled back company-owned unit expansion, contained food and labor costs and shrank its outsized G&A.
Comps are resuscitating, albeit off weak comparisons, and restaurant cash flow margins are improving, a trend we expect to continue near-term. In our opinion, the company's biggest problem has been its history of poor site selection, an issue that the newly hired seasoned development officer may remedy but not in time for 25 new franchise unit openings in 2008, potentially stifling further improvement.
Cleveland-Cliffs Downgraded
Cleveland-Cliffs, Inc. (CLF) is the largest producer of iron ore pellets in North America with a 45% share and is also a major supplier of metallurgical coal in North America with a 30% share. The company operates six iron ore mines in Michigan, Minnesota, and Eastern Canada as well as three coking coal mines in West Virginia and Alabama.
Rising prices and strong demand are pushing Cleveland Cliff's performance. Robust industrial growth in China and India has triggered demand for steel, resulting in higher demand for iron ore. Moreover, the merger with Alpha Natural Resources, Inc. (ANR) will help Cliffs to meet the increasing global demand for coal, consolidate the supplier base and generate substantial free cash flow.
However, this is offset by a weak production profile, rising energy costs and high customer concentration. As a result, we rate the shares a Hold with a target of $38, which is 5.5x our 2008 estimate.
Potash Corp. Fair Around $90
The Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan, Inc. (POT), a Canadian corporation based in Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, is the world's largest fertilizer enterprise producing three primary plant nutrients potash, phosphate and nitrogen.