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Activision: A Bright Light In The Dark Consumer World?
By: Market Folly   Monday, November 10, 2008 10:18 AM
Symbols: ATVI, ERTS, MCD, THQI, WMT

For the September quarter, Activision Blizzard had two of the top-five PC titles worldwide -- Blizzard Entertainment's World of Warcraft: Battle Chest(R) and Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare, according to Charttrack, Gfk and The NPD Group."

And, some data from the recent quarter courtesy of Barron's Tech Trader Daily,

"For the quarter, the video game company posted non-GAAP revenue of $770 million, well ahead of the company’s previous forecast of $620 million. ATVI posted non-GAAP EPS of 7 cents a share, better than the company’s forecast of 4 cents. For Q4, the company sees non-GAAP revenue of $2.2 billion, with profits of 29 cents a share."

So, as you can see, the company is holding up fine so far in this environment. Yes, the consumer should theoretically weaken as we move forward, but ATVI has solid titles, is selling cheaper items, and is selling to a consumer who is not likely to give up their products, despite the recession. If you want any evidence that ATVI has a comparative advantage in titles, then simply compare ATVI's most recent quarter to rival THQ's quarter. Yea, that wasn't pretty.

Lastly, I want to highlight that $10 billion hedge fund Caxton Associates ran by Bruce Kovner was out adding ATVI as a new position in their portfolio last quarter. And, not only did they just 'add it,' they really loaded up. They brought it up all the way to their 3rd largest portfolio holding. I wrote about Caxton's purchase earlier, where I detailed their portfolio holdings. Caxton is one of the many hedge funds I track on Marketfolly.com.

ATVI is best of breed in the gaming space and I am happy to be long the name as a hedge to my other specialty retail shorts. (See my post on the deteriorating consumer environment for short ideas). But, more importantly, the company definitely has a bright near-term future with all the anxiously awaited titles they have lined up.

I would be remiss if I did not end this piece with a 'proceed with caution' label. Specialty retail is easily going to be the hardest hit in the retail space. This is simply going to be a case of "who loses the least." If you do not want to take on the risk involved with this name, I would highly suggest checking out cheap retail plays on the "trading down" of the consumer to cheaper alternatives. These names include the masters of the cheap domain: Walmart (WMT) and McDonalds (MCD). And, you can read my thoughts about MCD's dominance here. Apart from those, playing retail names from the long side will be a very uphill battle.

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