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Starting Now: America’s Second Great Depression
By: Money and Markets   Monday, December 01, 2008 9:58 AM

You didn’t have to know about investing. All you needed to figure out was how to protect yourself from the bad times. Then, when we hit rock bottom — that was the time to start buying real estate, stocks or bonds.

“The end of the entire decline came with two events: The inauguration of our new president, Franklin D. Roosevelt, and the national banking holiday he declared on his third day in office. But after three years of panics and crashes, most people greeted those events with dread. They thought it would be the beginning of another, even steeper slide. Some people even said it was the final chapter of capitalism itself. As it turned out, that was precisely the right time to pick up some of the greatest bargains of the century and make a lot of money.”

Helping people make money was Dad’s profession, but his passion in life went far beyond money; he was a man of deep empathy and feeling for his fellow man. When others suffered, he suffered along side them. He gave them jobs, bought them meals and offered an abundance of free advice

Most of all, he did not want to see America go through another depression ever again. His vision for accomplishing that goal, however, was different from that of most economists in the post-Depression era. Their strategy was to yank the economy out of nearly every slump and slumber, forever seeking to keep the economy growing, always bailing out major institutions that failed. His philosophy was moderation in both directions. “The only way to avoid the pain of a great bust,” he wrote, “is to refrain from the excesses of a great boom.”

I agree, and in the coming weeks, I’ll explain why. Plus, I’ll show you how you can use a similarly moderate approach to secure your own future.

A better future was also something Dad sought to secure for the country as a whole, in his own personal way. In 1955, for example, a Florida junk dealer sought to take over one of America’s largest cash-rich companies to force it to borrow money and grow more quickly. In response, Dad mobilized like-minded executives from all over the country and, in one of the greatest corporate battles of that era, successfully blocked the takeover. Similarly, in 1959, when the U.S. federal deficit seemed to be growing out of control, he formed the Sound Dollar Committee, organized a grassroots movement of an estimated 11 million citizens, and helped President Eisenhower give America its last truly balanced budget.

Today, I am Chairman of the Sound Dollar Committee; and separately, I am the cofounder of the Financial Publishers Association, representing over 14 million investors. My primary goal, like Dad’s, is to do my small part to help head off the avoidable consequences of another depression.

Right now, our country’s finances have deteriorated too far to balance the federal budget anytime soon. But it’s not too late to avoid some major financial blunders that could seriously weaken our country for the rest of the century. Even in the worst-case scenario, it is certainly not too late for you to protect your savings, boost your income and grow your wealth.

How long could the depression last? How much further can home prices fall? How far down will the stock market go? Will it be as bad as the 1930s? At this juncture, you can count on your fingers the number of serious analysts who believe that’s even a remote possibility. And yet, stranger things have already happened, including the largest bank and insurance company collapses of all time. Before he passed away, Dad expressed it this way:

“Most Americans — especially the youngsters who manage billions of dollars on Wall Street — have no concept of the power and speed of a great stock market crash. They’ve never lived through one. So it’s hard for them to visualize it. In 1929, people were jumping out of windows and one-time wealthy people were selling apples on street corners. The shock waves reached into almost every office and every home in the country and in the world. Next time, it could be just as bad, or even worse.”

Trouble is, there are no historical precedents for what’s happening in this era. Any forecasts I make today, no matter how well researched, are not nearly as valuable as the awareness you will have of current events as they unfold in real time. So rather than pick a number for the bottom in the Dow or guess the low price of an average home, my primary purpose is to help give you the understanding you need to make some major decisions right now and then adjust them as the crisis unfolds.

Your immediate task, which may seem hard, is actually very simple — get your money to safety.

Your second task, which may seem easy, could actually be more difficult — wait patiently.

But it’s the last step that will be the most rewarding — when real estate, stocks and bonds are near a true bottom, reinvest in America and greatly improve your life for years to come.

Over the next few weeks, I will show you how. I will give you the warning signs to watch out for while things are still falling; I will describe the kinds of conditions that are likely to prevail when we’re near a bottom; and I will provide step-by-step instructions on precisely what to do.

Surviving the crisis on Wall Street and Main Street is not rocket science. You don’t have to forecast the future. You don’t even need investing experience.



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