While we already know $750 is no magic number below which gold cannot fall or
below which it cannot loiter, I take no small comfort in the fact that there is
a clear increase in demand at that price. In time, as the dollar continues to
participate in the fiat currency race to the bottom, that number will ratchet
higher and higher still.
Maybe not overnight, but in the next six months to a year, certainly… or as
certain as anyone can be about anything these days.
One thing that could get the show on the road – pronto-like – has to do with
the continuing presence of the other 900-pound gorilla in the room: Foreign
dollar holders.
[A Money Morning investigative analysis back in
September demonstrated the muscle these overseas-dollar holders have, by showing
how they forced the U.S. government to step in and take control of
foundering mortgage giants Fannie Mae (FNM)
and Freddie Mac (FRE).]
Those foreign-dollar holders are at work in the gold market, as well. For
proof, just look at China. Like their Saudi counterparts, Chinese investors have
at their disposal a lot of greenbacks. Actually, not just a lot, but enough to
remake the Great Wall, for China’s currency reserves are currently estimated at
$2 trillion.
China’s investors face the same worries that we face. They’re watching the
daily financial news and are realizing that this crisis is getting much, much
worse. With that realization comes the desire to add gold their holdings.
On that front, here’s some news from Hong Kong…
(The Standard, Hong Kong. Nov. 14): The mainland is
seriously considering a plan to diversify more of its massive foreign-exchange
reserves into gold, a person familiar with the situation told The
Standard.
Beijing is considering changing its asset allocations during the financial
tsunami in order to build up gold reserves "in a big way," the source said.
China’s fears about the long-term viability of parking most of its reserves
in U.S. government bonds were triggered by Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson’s
US$700 billion (HK$5.46 trillion) bailout plan, which may make the U.S. budget
deficit balloon to well over US$1 trillion this fiscal year.
The U.S. government will fund the bailout by printing new money or issuing
huge amounts of new debt, either of which will put severe pressure on the value
of the greenback and on government bond yields.
The United States holds 8,133.5 tonnes of gold reserves valued at US$188.23
billion. China holds gold reserves of just 600 tonnes, worth only US$13.89
billion.
Beijing’s reserves could easily go up to 3,000 to 4,000 tonnes, Tanrich
Futures senior vice president Colleen Chow Yin-shan said.
In another article from Bloomberg News, the head of
China’s gold association commented that he thought China could triple its
reserves. The Bloomberg report featured this
quote.
China has the world’s biggest foreign-exchange reserves at $1.9 trillion,
according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It is also the largest
overseas holder of Treasuries after Japan. China’s demand for gold jumped 23%
in 2007, making it the world’s second-largest consumer.
The Asian nation may buy more gold for its reserves on concern the $700
billion U.S. bank bailout will cause declines in the dollar and Treasuries,
The Standard newspaper in Hong Kong reported today, citing an
unidentified person.
In the final analysis, we can’t say with certainty what path gold will take
between now and the time this crisis is over. But until I can see some tangible
evidence that it has lost its value as money, I’m a happy holder and – at less
than $750 an ounce – a buyer.