all that was holding back the consumer was $4.00 gas! (nevermind the employment picture, a country of indebted consumers in upside homes or minor details like that) $2.50 gas will cause the spigot of spending to return. One such beneficiary of course would be Vegas. I said at the time, as I say every time a pretentious thesis dominates the airwaves and media outlets - it's nonsense, but it is what it is - play it if you will, but don't believe it for one momemt. It's a hedge fund trade, nothing more. Perception is reality; perception is all that matters at the time even if months later you see the thesis was a complete hoax. So.... per hedge fund thesis, if that $2.70 gas from late summer was going to cause hordes of travelers to flood Vegas (and malls), I can only imagine what $1.60 - $1.80 gas must be doing the past few months? I mean the thesis is, cash flush Americans will act like locusts descending on the gambling mecca. Reality? Not so much.

• Las Vegas visitation fell 10.2 percent to 3 million people in October, the biggest drop since a 14.1 percent decline in September 2001.
• The report is yet another painful indicator the Las Vegas economy is suffering a massive hangover from several years of living high on cheap gasoline, easy mortgage money and generous airline service.

The reason I post that is not to say "look I was right that the stupid thesis that drove some of these consumer related stocks up 50% in 5 weeks was a joke", but to be wary of all the thesis you hear each and every day - for example the infrastructure thesis, the 4.5% mortgage rate will cause housing inventory to fly off the shelves thesis, the "2nd half 2009 recovery" thesis, the China is safe and shall roar based on government spending thesis, and many others we point to each week. Maybe in the old days the "stock action" would actually mean something; a precursor to a real change in character. Nowadays, 90% of the time these stocks movements mean very little in the big picture - it's just hedge funds jumping in and out of (or short covering) and running themes based on a "theory" - most of which prove false within months, but by then they are onto the next. And this is why Wall Street has become no different than the casino's in Wynn's resorts. Hopefully as more of the hedge fund herd, ever focused on the 1 month returns, is eliminated in the next 12 months - the markets will begin to take on a more rationale "old school" flavor into 2010. But who knows.

No position