Do I believe in the product? Do I feel that others will believe in the product? Do I believe that the financing will get settled… In one fell swoop, or piece meal? Do I believe that the OEM channel will turn around? Do I believe that the retail channel will revive? Do I believe that the “push” marketing of the OEM channel will deliver enough subscribers? Do I believe that “pull” marketing of retail can maintain and grow? Will media companies once again become Wall Street darlings, or will they continue to be treated as yesterday’s news? Can the company make the necessary steps without eroding shareholder value? Do I have extra money that I want to speculate with, and if so, is satellite radio what I want to hitch a portion of my portfolio to?
If all of these questions seem overwhelming, consider the vast difference of opinion to those that invest in this equity. People that bought at $5 have a much different opinion than those that bought at $1, and the opinion changes even more starkly for those that bought at 15 cents. Now throw all of the shorts into the mix, and you will find that Sirius XM Radio has a very “bi-polar” group of investors. This equity is riddled an investment base that is not in unison. The only way, in my opinion, that this equity will see any near term stability is for the majority of investors to be of a like minded opinion on the business, and have the confidence that a longer term hold on the company is the way to go. Until this happens, this is an equity adrift. The only real solution is positive numbers from Sirius XM on a consistent basis combined with good cash flow, merger synergies, and news that leads to the demonstration of these things.
It has been said that fortunes can be made from the ashes of a bear market. While others stand buy scratching their heads and wondering what happened, those that will make fortunes are doing their homework across many investment sectors looking for a few diamonds in the rough. They seek out companies that took a beating like all others, but will be able to rise up the fastest. Right now Sirius XM is a speculative equity that needs to rely on outside factors to see them through the storm. Reliance on outside factors adds additional risk. Betting on an equity such as this means betting on banks to deliver financing, cars to begin to sell, and a product that consumers want. This is a major reason that we have a stock like this at the level we see it at currently.
Are you a speculator?
Position - Long Sirius XM 
