However, this one is no secret and at 15x forward earnings much of this might already be in the stock price

Monsanto (MON) - another agriculture stock; a unique franchise and not part of the once popular fertilizer cohort. At $73 its below the 50 day moving average of $76 despite the market rally - unfortunately in this day and age, anything commodity related is more linked to oil prices or shipping rates rather than their own individual businesses.

Ruby Tuesday (RT) - this is one example of a stock where I did not benefit from my "this sector is in real trouble" call from fall 2007. I was pointing out the coming weakness in consumer discretionary that would be coming as the punditry assured us that "its just a subprime problem" and "Ben Bernanke has it taken care of... no recession here - move along" Combined with commodity prices that were flying higher (Food Inflation Starting to Hit Restaurants) and restaurants were one of my favorite themes for very bad things happening (Tough Times Ahead: Restaurants?) In October 2007 I said let's take a look at Ruby Tuesday as it had fallen from $19 to $17 (Let's Check in on Ruby Tuesday) By January 2008 (3 Months Later - Let's Look at Ruby Tuesday) Now, its a $1.50 stock. Wow, just imagine if there had been a recession...


No reason to try to squeeze blood out of a stone - from $17 to $2.50 would be good enough for me. But this an example of why a hedged portfolio (long AND short) is superior to long only - you can find a lot of weak individual names. And even in bear markets can offset the losses in long positions with some huge winners. Now at some point if a company like this can stay in business you'll see the stock double from $1.50 to $3.00 overnight out of the blue... or if the Obama recovery takes hold heck it might be a $8 stock "any moment" now as all these former accountants turned shovel diggers under New Deal 2.0 need a place to eat.