The
BlackBerry
Storm - RIMM’s first touch-screen smartphone - is a direct counterpunch to
Apple’s
iPhone
3G, which allegedly poses some security risks that become problematic in the
corporate environment. And the Storm, together with the
BlackBerry
Storm 9000 and the
BlackBerry Pearl
Flip 8220 will probably propel RIMM as the major market share gainer in the
market in the current quarter, as evidenced by the success of the Storm on Black
Friday.
In fact, with this early success already well underway, RIMM projected a
large increase in revenue this quarter, to as much as $3.3 to $3.5 billion.
Both Apple and RIMM trail mobile device king Nokia Corp. (NYSE ADR: NOK) in market
share. With its focus on the consumer - and not the corporate - market, Nokia
leads the world with a 40% market share in the smartphone market, followed by
Apple with 17% and Research in Motion with 15%. So the bottom line for both
Apple and RIMM is that they will gain market share from Nokia and other makers
in a smartphone market that is growing at a 9.0% annual clip.
Research in
Motion is poised to do very well for the follow reasons:
- It’s selling into a market segment that’s continuing to grow at a hefty
single-digit pace.
- It is technologically dominant in the big-spending corporate market.
- It stands to boost its market share in both the overall smartphone segment
and in the corporate segment.
- It has three new models on the market in the BlackBerry
Storm the BlackBerry
Storm 9000 and the BlackBerry Pearl
Flip 8220 - which should enable it to snag additional market share.
All in all, these factors and others should enable Research in Motion should
do well in this quarter, and throughout this year in general - despite the
negative developments in the global economy.
RIMM shares bottomed at about $36 on Dec. 3, the day it downgraded its
outlook. It has rallied some 20% from that quick bottom and has since been
repeatedly testing these levels. At these levels, the stock is already back to
the range out of which it started 2007 and proceeded to log in a 250% climb.
Research in Motion shares closed Friday at $41.92, and have traded as high as
$148.13 in the past 52 weeks.
So with all the aforementioned competitive advantages, the stock correction
that seems to have run its course and a valuation that results in the lowest PEG
(Price/Earnings to Earnings Growth Rate) ratio among its comparable peers
(Apple, Nokia and Microsoft), RIMM is a compelling buy.
Recommendation: Buy RIMM shares immediately. But
don’t purchase your entire intended position all at once. Leave some firepower
to buy a second block of shares during a strong pullback in the stock or in the
general market - should one occur - or after the company reports results from
the current quarter. (**)