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Buy, Sell Or Hold: Research In Motion Is Poised To Dial Up Profits
By: Money Morning   Tuesday, January 06, 2009 10:25 AM
Symbols: AAPL, MSFT, NOK, RIMM

The BlackBerry Storm - RIMM’s first touch-screen smartphone - is a direct counterpunch to Apple’s iPhone 3G, which allegedly poses some security risks that become problematic in the corporate environment.  And the Storm, together with the BlackBerry Storm 9000 and the BlackBerry Pearl Flip 8220 will probably propel RIMM as the major market share gainer in the market in the current quarter, as evidenced by the success of the Storm on Black Friday.

In fact, with this early success already well underway, RIMM projected a large increase in revenue this quarter, to as much as $3.3 to $3.5 billion.  Both Apple and RIMM trail mobile device king Nokia Corp. (NYSE ADR: NOK) in market share. With its focus on the consumer - and not the corporate - market, Nokia leads the world with a 40% market share in the smartphone market, followed by Apple with 17% and Research in Motion with 15%.  So the bottom line for both Apple and RIMM is that they will gain market share from Nokia and other makers in a smartphone market that is growing at a 9.0% annual clip.
Research in Motion is poised to do very well for the follow reasons:

  • It’s selling into a market segment that’s continuing to grow at a hefty single-digit pace.
  • It is technologically dominant in the big-spending corporate market.
  • It stands to boost its market share in both the overall smartphone segment and in the corporate segment.
  • It has three new models on the market in the BlackBerry Storm the BlackBerry Storm 9000 and the BlackBerry Pearl Flip 8220 - which should enable it to snag additional market share.

All in all, these factors and others should enable Research in Motion should do well in this quarter, and throughout this year in general - despite the negative developments in the global economy.

RIMM shares bottomed at about $36 on Dec. 3, the day it downgraded its outlook. It has rallied some 20% from that quick bottom and has since been repeatedly testing these levels.  At these levels, the stock is already back to the range out of which it started 2007 and proceeded to log in a 250% climb. 

Research in Motion shares closed Friday at $41.92, and have traded as high as $148.13 in the past 52 weeks.

So with all the aforementioned competitive advantages, the stock correction that seems to have run its course and a valuation that results in the lowest PEG (Price/Earnings to Earnings Growth Rate) ratio among its comparable peers (Apple, Nokia and Microsoft), RIMM is a compelling buy.

Recommendation: Buy RIMM shares immediately. But don’t purchase your entire intended position all at once. Leave some firepower to buy a second block of shares during a strong pullback in the stock or in the general market - should one occur - or after the company reports results from the current quarter. (**)



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