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China’s Red Dragon Turns Financial Crisis Into Opportunity
By: Money Morning   Wednesday, January 07, 2009 10:47 AM
Symbols: AAPL, CHL, LFC, MCO, RIO

But specifically, where should you look to park investment capital in the Chinese market? 

Well, there are solid plays across all spectrums of China’s economy, but the best are in infrastructure, consumer goods and energy. 

Infrastructure Paves the Way to Profit

The first place to look is infrastructure development, which has been the main engine of China’s explosive growth over the past two decades. 

While most believe China’s economy is export driven, statistics show public works spending accounts for 4%-6 % of the country’s GDP growth. From 2007-2010, China will spend a whopping $725 billion on infrastructure improvements in a race to accommodate its rapidly migrating populace.
 
By 2030, 1 billion of its people will live in cities, up from 600 million today.  About 170 mass-transit systems will be needed.  Another 40 billion square meters of floor space will be built in 5 million buildings - 50,000 of which could be skyscrapers.

And all of these developed regions will be connected by new roads. Shorter transport times drive down costs, and smooth the transition to city living for China’s exploding middle class.

Plans for China’s road system call for 12 major routes across the country from north to south and east to west connecting millions to new routes of commerce, according to The Wall Street Journal.  The system will stretch 53,000 miles by 2020, surpassing the 47,000 miles of roadways in the United States.

It will take massive amounts of steel, cement, and bulk transportation to build those roads.
   
Money Morning Contributing Editor Martin Hutchinson believes one big winner from the infrastructure boom will be Vale (ADR: RIO) the world’s largest producer of iron ore.  As the world’s leading producer and consumer of steel, China is also the world’s leading importer of iron ore, which - along with coking coal - is a key component in steel production.

And while prices and demand for Chinese steel fell sharply in the second half of 2008, they are already beginning to pick back up.

In fact, steel production in the Chinese city of Tangshan, in the Hebei province, has risen to more than 70% of capacity as companies resumed output after prices stabilized, the Tangshan Evening News reported Dec. 26. About 39 out of 57 iron and steel factories in Hebei, China’s biggest steel-producing province, are operating now, compared with 25 in August.

Tangshan is an industrial-level city in that steel-rich region.

“The iron-ore stocks have been overly poorly treated in the past couple of months with all the fear over China,” Michael Heffernan, a client adviser with Austock Securities Ltd., told Bloomberg News.

“Negativity over the Chinese situation is overdone,” Heffernan added. “In the past couple of months the Chinese may have been posturing to get the best possible deals they could when negotiations over contract prices reopen.”

That’s good news for Vale, which looks attractive with a Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio of only 8.6.

A big source of China’s iron-and-steel demand has to do with the country’s commitment to railroads.



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