But specifically, where should you look to park investment capital in the
Chinese market?
Well, there are solid plays across all spectrums of China’s economy, but the
best are in infrastructure, consumer goods and energy.
Infrastructure Paves the Way to Profit
The first place to look is infrastructure development, which has been the
main engine of China’s explosive growth over the past two decades.
While most believe China’s economy is export driven, statistics show public
works spending accounts for 4%-6 % of the country’s GDP growth. From 2007-2010,
China will spend a whopping $725 billion on infrastructure improvements in a
race to accommodate its rapidly migrating populace.
By 2030, 1 billion
of its people will live in cities, up from 600 million today. About 170
mass-transit systems will be needed. Another 40 billion square meters of floor
space will be built in 5 million buildings - 50,000 of which could be
skyscrapers.
And all of these developed regions will be connected by new roads. Shorter
transport times drive down costs, and smooth the transition to city living for
China’s exploding middle class.
Plans for China’s road system call for 12 major routes across the country
from north to south and east to west connecting millions to new routes of
commerce, according to The Wall Street
Journal. The system will stretch 53,000 miles by 2020, surpassing
the 47,000 miles of roadways in the United States.
It will take massive amounts of steel, cement, and bulk transportation to
build those roads.
Money Morning
Contributing Editor Martin
Hutchinson believes one
big winner from the infrastructure boom will be Vale (ADR: RIO) the world’s largest
producer of iron ore. As the world’s leading producer and
consumer of steel, China is also the world’s leading importer of iron ore, which
- along with coking coal - is a key component in steel production.
And while prices and demand for Chinese steel fell sharply in the second half
of 2008, they are already beginning to pick back up.
In fact, steel
production in the Chinese city of Tangshan, in the Hebei province, has risen to
more than 70% of capacity as companies resumed output after prices
stabilized, the Tangshan Evening News reported Dec.
26. About 39 out of 57 iron and steel factories in Hebei, China’s biggest
steel-producing province, are operating now, compared with 25 in August.
Tangshan is an
industrial-level city in that steel-rich region.
“The iron-ore stocks have been overly poorly treated in the past couple of
months with all the fear over China,” Michael Heffernan, a client adviser with
Austock
Securities Ltd., told Bloomberg News.
“Negativity over the Chinese situation is overdone,” Heffernan added. “In the
past couple of months the Chinese may have been posturing to get the best
possible deals they could when negotiations over contract prices reopen.”
That’s good news for Vale, which looks attractive with a Price/Earnings (P/E)
ratio of only 8.6.
A big source of China’s iron-and-steel demand has to do with the country’s
commitment to railroads.