A full $100 billion of the stimulus package will be
spent on rail services.
That makes Guangshen Railway Co. Ltd. (ADR: GSH) a good play.
Guangshen Railways is the biggest rail operator in China with cargo and
passenger operations between Guangzhou and Shenzhen, as well as Hong Kong.
There is an acute shortage of rail capacity to carry raw materials from
China’s western provinces to manufacturing centers on the Red Dragon’s East
Coast. Right now, cargo capacity is only 35% of demand, according to the Chinese
Railway Ministry.
That helped revenue at this $94 billion company to jump 17% in the first
three quarters of 2008, despite a crippling snowstorm in January. Guangshen
also yields about 3%, rewarding investors who are willing to hold the shares as
they wait for the stimulus to kick in.
China’s Urban Migration and Growing Consumer Class
The opening of new highways is providing greater mobility to China’s
population, accelerating the massive move from the hinterlands to the cities.
Incredibly, China will have 221 cities with more than one million inhabitants by
2025 - compared with 35 in Europe and nine in the United States today.
Quite simply, that urban migration is responsible for creating the largest
consumer class the world has ever seen - a middle class greater than the entire
population of the United States.
Retail sales in China are estimated to have risen about 21% in 2008,
according to the Ministry of Commerce. And now that weakness in the global
economy has dented exports, the government is making an even greater effort to
boost domestic consumption.
That’s why Money Morning Contributing Editor Horacio Marquez
likes China Life Insurance Company Ltd. (ADR: LFC).
China Life is experiencing continued growth for reasons
unique to government regulations. Without a social security system, Chinese
consumers must fund their own retirement - one reason the Chinese save an
amazing 35 cents of every dollar they earn.
Also, China Life’s investment portfolio hasn’t been hit by the market
meltdown, because government regulations prevented the company from owning
subprime-related mortgages and securities. With 43% market share, Moody’s Corp.
(MCO) expects
premiums to grow between 30% and 40% in 2008. And right now, only 3% of China’s
consumers own life insurance, leaving plenty more room for growth.
Another company worth looking at is China Mobile Ltd. (ADR: CHL).
With 443 million subscribers, China Mobile is the dominant
provider in the world’s largest mobile telecom market. And in terms of growth,
an additional 3 million to 4 million consumers become mobile phone subscribers
in China each month, according to the Chinese Ministry of Information.
The company’s earnings per share (EPS) increased 31% in the first three
quarters of 2008 and China Mobile stock yields a healthy 3.2%.
Now, the mobile services giant is in talks with Apple Inc. (AAPL) to introduce the
iPhone to the burgeoning Chinese market. And with the global slump hurting
smaller players, it’s on the hunt for acquisitions with attractive valuations in
emerging markets.
Soaring Energy Demand = Growing Profit
Despite a slight slowdown in the economy, China’s energy appetite continues
to grow at a ravenous pace. And even though the country is building one
coal-fired power plant a week, China’s unable to keep up with exploding demand.
China’s electricity consumption rose 5.2% in 2008 and investment follow. A
total of $84 billion (576 billion yuan) was invested in the sector in 2008 - a
1.52% over to 2007. Power grid spending rose 17.69% to $42 billion (288.5
billion yuan).
As with other forms of infrastructure, China plans to up its investment in
electricity over the next several years. China has already announced $29 billion
in new energy projects, including a new natural gas pipeline, construction of 10
new nuclear power plants, and a new coal mine, set to produce 14 million tons of
coal a year.