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China’s Red Dragon Turns Financial Crisis Into Opportunity
By: Money Morning   Wednesday, January 07, 2009 10:47 AM
Symbols: AAPL, CHL, LFC, MCO, RIO

A full $100 billion of the stimulus package will be spent on rail services. 

That makes Guangshen Railway Co. Ltd. (ADR: GSH) a good play.

Guangshen Railways is the biggest rail operator in China with cargo and passenger operations between Guangzhou and Shenzhen, as well as Hong Kong.
 
There is an acute shortage of rail capacity to carry raw materials from China’s western provinces to manufacturing centers on the Red Dragon’s East Coast. Right now, cargo capacity is only 35% of demand, according to the Chinese Railway Ministry.

That helped revenue at this $94 billion company to jump 17% in the first three quarters of 2008, despite a crippling snowstorm in January.  Guangshen also yields about 3%, rewarding investors who are willing to hold the shares as they wait for the stimulus to kick in.

China’s Urban Migration and Growing Consumer Class

The opening of new highways is providing greater mobility to China’s population, accelerating the massive move from the hinterlands to the cities. Incredibly, China will have 221 cities with more than one million inhabitants by 2025 - compared with 35 in Europe and nine in the United States today.

Quite simply, that urban migration is responsible for creating the largest consumer class the world has ever seen - a middle class greater than the entire population of the United States.

Retail sales in China are estimated to have risen about 21% in 2008, according to the Ministry of Commerce. And now that weakness in the global economy has dented exports, the government is making an even greater effort to boost domestic consumption.

That’s why Money Morning Contributing Editor Horacio Marquez likes China Life Insurance Company Ltd. (ADR: LFC)

China Life is experiencing continued growth for reasons unique to government regulations.  Without a social security system, Chinese consumers must fund their own retirement - one reason the Chinese save an amazing 35 cents of every dollar they earn. 

Also, China Life’s investment portfolio hasn’t been hit by the market meltdown, because government regulations prevented the company from owning subprime-related mortgages and securities. With 43% market share, Moody’s Corp. (MCO) expects premiums to grow between 30% and 40% in 2008.  And right now, only 3% of China’s consumers own life insurance, leaving plenty more room for growth.

Another company worth looking at is China Mobile Ltd. (ADR: CHL).

With 443 million subscribers, China Mobile is the dominant provider in the world’s largest mobile telecom market.  And in terms of growth, an additional 3 million to 4 million consumers become mobile phone subscribers in China each month, according to the Chinese Ministry of Information. 

The company’s earnings per share (EPS) increased 31% in the first three quarters of 2008 and China Mobile stock yields a healthy 3.2%. 

Now, the mobile services giant is in talks with Apple Inc. (AAPL) to introduce the iPhone to the burgeoning Chinese market.  And with the global slump hurting smaller players, it’s on the hunt for acquisitions with attractive valuations in emerging markets.

Soaring Energy Demand = Growing Profit

Despite a slight slowdown in the economy, China’s energy appetite continues to grow at a ravenous pace. And even though the country is building one coal-fired power plant a week, China’s unable to keep up with exploding demand. 

China’s electricity consumption rose 5.2% in 2008 and investment follow.  A total of $84 billion (576 billion yuan) was invested in the sector in 2008 - a 1.52% over to 2007.  Power grid spending rose 17.69% to $42 billion (288.5 billion yuan).

As with other forms of infrastructure, China plans to up its investment in electricity over the next several years. China has already announced $29 billion in new energy projects, including a new natural gas pipeline, construction of 10 new nuclear power plants, and a new coal mine, set to produce 14 million tons of coal a year. 



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