(DOW)
December 29, 2008 (8:30a) - Status Report

Both companies have issued press releases related to Dow's failed Kuwaiti joint venture, with ROH compelled to reiterate that this transaction will not be affected by events in Kuwait. Nevertheless, there is now a great deal of concern that this transaction is in danger of falling through, which is understandable under the current market conditions.

If this deal involved any other chemical company besides DOW, the concerns would be shared by this publication. However, as this combination clearly provides DOW the critical long-term strategic rationale originally intended, and as DOW is perfectly capable of completing the transaction regardless of the failed joint venture in Kuwait, it is much more likely that this merger will be successfully completed in the projected time frame.

EU clearance remains expected in January, or February at the latest, followed shortly thereafter by conditional FTC approval. The transaction is expected by this publication to be completed almost immediately following the completion of the two remaining regulatory reviews.

NRG Energy, Inc. (NRG) - Exelon Corporation (EXC)

December 23, 2008 (9:05a) - Status Report

This entry will serve as an obligatory acknowledgment of EXC's highly-publicized announcement last week that the company has filed the key regulatory applications for this non-transaction. Both the FERC and HSR notifications were filed on December 18, 2008, according to EXC.

An EXC press released stated the following regarding the regulatory reviews in the context of this proposed transaction:

"Exelon previously disclosed that a combined Exelon-NRG would need to divest some generating capacity in Texas and PJM East to protect and enhance competitive markets and mitigate any potential market concentration. As part of its FERC filing, Exelon has proposed to divest its three facilities in Texas – Mountain Creek, Handley and LaPorte – totaling approximately 2,400 MW of capacity, and to transfer to a third party Exelon’s power purchase agreements in Texas totaling approximately 1,200 MW of capacity. In addition, the combined company would divest approximately 1,000 MW in the PJM East market, specifically the Indian River, Vienna and Dover plants currently owned by NRG. Exelon does not believe there are any other generation overlap issues related to the proposed combination."

In response, NRG was oddly compelled to challenge the necessity of the reviews from the perspective that they are a 'waste' of federal resources.

There is very little to add to this increasingly bizarre situation other than to reiterate the perception that there is virtually no chance of a formal deal emerging between the two companies in the near future, and an equally small chance of hostile efforts by EXC succeeding. The regulator processes will be followed to some extent over the coming months, but it is highly likely that both the FERC and HSR processes will be discontinued unless EXC significantly increases its offer. This is currently not anticipated in this particular case.

$Wavecom (WVCM) - Sierra Wireless (SWIR)

December 22, 2008 (2:05p) - General Analysis

The only major variable associated with this transaction appears the timing to a formal agreement between WVCM and SWIR, as only a Memorandum of Understand exists at this time between the two companies. Presumably, a formal agreement and tender offer launch will commence within the next few days, although this has not been confirmed by either company at this time.

Assuming SWIR does indeed start its tender offer this week, or at some point next week, there is no reason to expect this transaction to go beyond February 2009, as there are appear to be no difficult regulatory or other obstacles to completion.

It should be noted that there is very little reference for this deal in the transaction database, with the possible exception of Eircell-Vodafone in 2001. This deal is mostly dissimilar from the Eircell deal however, so it can not be used for direct comparison purposes other than in terms of regulatory matters. Unless contradictory details surface, it is anticipated that this transaction will not require FCC, DOJ/FTC, or any state consents, although WVCM does currently have significant U.S. operations.

For the time being, this transaction is expected to close in roughly 45 days from the tender offer commencement -- or by mid-February 2009 at the latest.