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Retailers Battle Sales Slump… Bank Of England Battles Recession… Russia And Ukraine Battle Each Other
By: Smart Profits Report   Thursday, January 08, 2009 4:33 PM
Symbols: GPS, SKS, SPR, TBHS, WAT, WMT

As recently as October, the base rate stood at 5%, but with the BoE in full-court press mode, it’s made four reductions since then.

But manufacturing association EEF said the bank should have cut rates more heavily, while Ernst & Young believes the bank should continue cutting from here.

From the bank’s point of view, while the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) most likely did discuss whacking rates to zero, as the Fed has done here, the bankers wouldn’t have any more wiggle room in future - and no more market-jolting announcements to make. In addition, the bank doesn’t exactly want to cripple the pound - not all at once anyway. So for now, expect a steady trip to zero, rather than the bank going “all in.”

The bottom line is that neither the Fed here nor the BoE in Britain really knows whether its aggressive stimulus measures will work. They both like to give the appearance of being in control of the situation, but this recession is a different animal from previous downturns. It’s spread across many areas… it’s deep… it’s severe… and is likely to last for several more months. Policy makers are essentially hedging their bets to combat it. But remember… amid the gloom, this recession will end.

* * * * * * * * * *

A New Cold War

No progress.

That’s the verdict from the latest round of talks aimed at solving the increasing crisis over Russia’s decision to cut off gas supplies to the Ukraine - one that is affecting gas supplies throughout Europe in the depths of winter.

European Union officials, plus those from Russia and the Ukraine were set for more negotiation in Brussels today, but those talks were cancelled, despite a meeting between Russia’s Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller and Oleg Dubyna of Ukrainian firm Naftogaz in Moscow on Wednesday evening.

The dispute stems from a disagreement over prices, contracts, unpaid bills from the Ukraine to Russia in 2008, and Russia’s accusations that the Ukraine has stolen gas from pipelines that pass through the country. And as tensions have risen, Russia shut the taps off a week ago - a move that has resulted in some EU nations (mostly in eastern and central Europe) seeing their gas supplies dramatically curtailed, or cut off entirely, because Russia accounts for about 25% of EU gas supplies - 80% of which are pumped through the Ukraine, according to the BBC.

Countries not receiving any gas at all from the Ukraine include the Czech Republic, Romania, Greece, Austria, Bulgaria, Hungary and Croatia.

Flash back two years and you’ll find a mirror image of the situation today, when Gazprom and Ukraine battled over gas supplies and caused shortages in several EU nations.

This dispute will eventually be resolved, but with much of the EU in the midst of a brutal cold spell, it can’t come soon enough. Meantime, Gazprom has vowed to pump extra supplies to the EU through other non-Ukrainian pipelines.

Best regards


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