Observe how China has managed to shift demand abruptly lower with Wal-Mart style ruthlessness.Even Japan has started to suffer, as its trade balance has moved into deficit for the first time since the late 70's. The difference between now and then, of course, is that over the past few months Japan's terms of trade have improved sharply, whereas they were awful in the late 70's.

Continued weakness in global trade is one of Macro Man's favourite themes. The question then becomes how to play it. He likes being short SGD as a proxy for pan-Asian trade volumes, plus there's a kicker from a possible devaluation in April (the MAS policy easing mechanism.)

He also likes being short the Australian dollar, which in a sense is more of a pure China play via the commodity channel. Of course, Australia has its own domestic recessionand collapsing housing bubble to deal with, which should further erode whatever erstwhile yield support that the Aussie has enjoyed.

Of course, one of the occasional frustrations about this industry is getting the economics spot on but failing to realzie that via the trade that one implements. However, both of the trades above appear to be gaining market traction this weak. In honesty, Macro Man isn't quite sure what to hope for with today's release of November trade figures in the US....well, other than lower volumes all round, which is after all at the core of his view.