If CAH grows its dividend at 19.0% per year, it will take 8 years to equal the cumulative earnings from a MMA yielding an estimated 20-year average rate of 4.06%.
Other: CAH is a member of the S&P 500 and a member of the Broad Dividend Achievers™ Index. The company offers a diversified line of products and services and has good growth prospects in its contract drug-making and its drug dispensing systems. CAH plans to spin-off off 80% of CareFusion this summer (2009) pending receipt of financing, investment-grade debt ratings and regulatory approvals. Risks include the loss of major accounts, changes in contracts with drug-makers/retailers and failure of the planned spin-off.
Conclusion: CAH earned one Star in the Fair Value section, earned three Stars in the Dividend Analytical Data section and earned one Star in the Dividend Income vs. MMA section for a net total of five Stars. This quantitatively ranks CAH as a 5 Star-Strong Buy.
Using my D4L-PreScreen.xls model, I determined the share price could increase to $41.49 before CAH’s NPV MMA Differential fell to the $7,500 that I like to see for a stock with 13 consecutive years of dividend increases. At that price the stock would yield 1.43%.
Resetting the D4L-PreScreen.xls model and solving for the dividend growth rate needed to generate the needed $7,500 NPV MMA Differential, the calculated rate is 16.2%. This dividend growth rate is below the 19.0% used in this analysis, thus providing a margin of safety. CAH has a risk rating of 2.00 which classifies it as a medium risk stock.
CAH is trading below its buy price of $41.49. As with any 5-Star company, CAH has a lot of excellent attributes that dividend investors look for when selecting a stock. Recently CAH increased its dividend 25%, However, its forward yield is still only 2% . Though I am looking for a higher initial yield to initiate a position, the company has earned a spot on my watch list. For additional information, including the stock’s dividend history, please refer to its data page.
Disclaimer: Material presented here is for informational purposes only. The above quantitative stock analysis, including the Star rating, is mechanically calculated and is based on historical information. The analysis assumes the stock will perform in the future as it has in the past. This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer for more information.
Full Disclosure: At the time of this writing, I held no position in CAH (0.0% of my Income Portfolio).
What are your thoughts on CAH?
