The bullish setup is shown on the daily chart below:
On June 17, we bought PowerShares Agriculture Fund (DBA), when it pulled back and bounced off major support of its 50 and 200-day moving averages. Three days later, DBA gapped down below its 50 and 200-day MAs, nearly triggering our stop, but it snapped back into the previous range the following day. Since then, it hasn't done much, but DBA is still holding its 200-day MA, and has the potential to catch some strong bullish momentum if it reclaims its 50-day MA, which has converged with its 20-day EMA. Such a move would also correlate to a breakout above its four-week downtrend line. With a tightened stop just below the 200-day MA, an entry near the current price carries a very positive reward/risk ratio. Take a look:
As for the short side of the market, there are a few inversely correlated "short" ETFs that are looking good for potential buy entry. One such ETF is UltraShort 20+ year T-Bonds (TBT). Last month, TBT broke out above a lengthy period of sideways consolidation and rallied sharply. However, it has since pulled back to support of that breakout level, at its February 2009 high, which converges with key support of its 200-day MA. We like TBT for buy entry above yesterday's high, over the $51 area:
We also like the "bull flag" pattern forming on the daily chart of UltraShort Oil and Gas (DUG). After breaking out to reverse its downtrend earlier this month, DUG ran into resistance of its 50-day MA, then pulled back to support of its 20-day EMA yesterday. Now, if it rallies above yesterday's high, it will reclaim its 50-day MA, triggering a legitimate buy entry as well. The Energy Bear 3X Shares (ERY) has a very similar chart pattern as well. The daily chart of DUG is shown below:
Yesterday, our position in UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) hit its stop, but the ETF is roughly forming the right shoulder of a bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern. As such, we'll be keeping an eye on SKF today, just in case our stop was a few cents too tight, and our entry a bit too early. We have no problem re-entering the position if our original expectation proves to be correct. A rally above yesterday's high would break its short-term downtrend line, and would give us sufficient technical reason to jump back into the trade. The UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) is showing slightly more relative strength than SKF, and also looks good for potential re-entry above yesterday's high. Last week, we sold SRS into strength, netting a large profit, but the current pullback may provide us with an ideal re-entry point if resumption of the short-term uptrend is confirmed.