Winter wheat accounts for 72.7% of all wheat planted. It also accounts for the highest rate of lost acres - the USDA forecasts that 19.9% of acres planted with winter wheat will not be harvested in 2009, likely due to the wet spring. In 2008, 14.4% of acres planted with winter wheat were not harvested.

With all of these decreases, you'd think the picture would be bullish for wheat. Nothing could be further from the truth. Analysts, and the market, see the report as very bearish, citing ample current stocks and weak demand. As of 1:44 p.m. Tuesday, the most active contract, Sept 2009, was down 17 cents to 540 6/8 cents - down from the previous day's close of 557 6/8 cents. The July contract briefly hit a six-month low of $4.9575.

Wheat (W, CBOT)

So the most active contracts for corn, soybeans and wheat are all down on the acreage report. Traders will be watching the weather reports to see how these commodities will react as we progress through the growing and harvesting seasons.

What About MOO?

We've been looking at a lot of pick-and-shovel plays around here lately, so the chart I watched most closely yesterday was the Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF [NYSE Arca: MOO], which tracks a wide range of agribusiness. The challenge with MOO, often, is understanding how crop-specific news will hit the companies inside the ETF. Well, yesterday at least, it was pretty clear. MOO lost almost 2% on the day.

But considering how low MOO went this past fall, shaving half a buck off the price on dismal news seems like victory.