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Google Trends Data As A Stock Market Indicator
By:
Brandon Rowley
Wednesday, July 01, 2009 4:19 PM
Symbols:
GOOG
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The advantages are numerous as the data reflects real search queries and not surveys, covers an absolutely massive audience and does not require participants to know they are even participating. The data hits the true hearts and minds of investors across the globe.
The data show that after a large spike in queries and a subsequent rapid decline, investors would have been well-advised to buy shares in equities. Clearly, the data do not point to when to sell stocks but have offered the most attractive entries on every decline in the markets over the past 2 years. Also, the data did not indicate that each bottom was the ultimate bottom in prices but gave investors a much better level to buy than just randomly buying as stocks fell. Waiting for a top in the search query spike and investing two weeks later appears to have worked very well during this bear market.
At the very least, the Google Trends data seem much more useful than the often quoted CBOE Volatility Index which showed strong inverse correlation to the market but did not offer much by way of forecasting of future prices. Perhaps the future could see more on this topic as the study on market participant sentiment continues on. If this is the bottom and stocks continue their ascent, it will be quite interesting to watch for a spike in "bull market" queries.
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